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A framework to account for structural damage, functional efficiency and reparation costs within the optimal design of countermeasures: Application to snow avalanche risk mitigation
Cold Regions Science and Technology ( IF 4.1 ) Pub Date : 2022-04-26 , DOI: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2022.103559
Philomène Favier , Nicolas Eckert , Thierry Faug , David Bertrand , Isabelle Ousset , Gabriel Candia , Juan Carlos de la Llera

In mountain areas, long-term snow avalanche risk evaluation is of paramount importance for land use planning. In avalanche-prone areas, when real estate demand is high, for instance, building protective structures may be a sensible choice for reaching a compromise between safety and development. Specifically, minimizing the risk within a quantitative framework can provide optimal defense structure configurations (size, localization, construction technology, etc.). However, existing approaches based on a proper theoretical decision-making framework still suffer from limitations making them hardly usable in practice. It is herein proposed to account for the physical, functional, and monetary dimensions of a protective measure within the assessment of total risk. Total risk, which is calculated as the mean expected loss, is quantified within a four-state system in which the failure of the dam and the failure of the dwellings to be protected are assessed with specific vulnerability relations. Bounds for the risk and subsequent optimal dam design values are quantified using minimum and maximum (min/max) functional efficiency relations of the dam. Additional assumptions regarding the functional-structural efficiency relation allow for the optimal design and corresponding minimum risk to be reached. An application is proposed with a case study from the French Alps. A comprehensive parametric study shows that the min/max bounds risk quantification is worth implementing in some cases, such as, for instance: if there is a high uncertainty of the functional efficiency of the dam, of if the assets to be protected have a monetary value. However, when the failure of the dam is unlikely to occur (due to its location or to its material resistance), it is shown that quantification of the intermediate risk without the min/max bounds approach is sufficient. In the future, the framework could be extended to many other mountain hazards (debris flows, landslides, etc.), more complex elements at risk, and even to problems going beyond the sole question of land-use planning such as traffic road regulation.



中文翻译:

在对策的优化设计中考虑结构损坏、功能效率和修复成本的框架:在雪崩风险缓解中的应用

在山区,长期雪崩风险评估对于土地利用规划至关重要。例如,在雪崩多发地区,当房地产需求很高时,建造保护结构可能是在安全和发展之间达成妥协的明智选择。具体而言,在量化框架内最小化风险可以提供最佳的防御结构配置(大小、本地化、施工技术等)。然而,基于适当的理论决策框架的现有方法仍然受到限制,使其难以在实践中使用。在此建议在总风险评估中考虑保护措施的物理、功能和货币维度。总风险,计算为平均预期损失,是在一个四态系统中量化的,在该系统中,大坝的失效和要保护的住宅的失效通过特定的脆弱性关系进行评估。使用大坝的最小和最大(最小/最大)功能效率关系来量化风险界限和随后的最佳水坝设计值。关于功能-结构效率关系的其他假设允许达到最佳设计和相应的最小风险。提出了一个应用程序,其中包含来自法国阿尔卑斯山的案例研究。一项全面的参数研究表明,在某些情况下,最小/最大界限风险量化是值得实施的,例如:如果大坝的功能效率存在高度不确定性,或者要保护的资产是否具有货币价值价值。然而,当大坝不太可能发生故障时(由于其位置或材料阻力),表明在没有最小/最大界限方法的情况下量化中间风险就足够了。未来,该框架可以扩展到许多其他山区灾害(泥石流、山体滑坡等)、更复杂的风险因素,甚至可以扩展到超越土地利用规划这一唯一问题的问题,例如交通道路监管。

更新日期:2022-04-26
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