Glaciers play a crucial role in the Earth System: they are important water suppliers to lower-lying areas during hot and dry periods, and they are major contributors to the observed present-day sea-level rise. Glaciers can also act as a source of natural hazards and have a major touristic value. Given their societal importance, there is large scientific interest in better understanding and accurately simulating the temporal evolution of glaciers, both in the past and in the future. Here, we give an overview of the state of the art of simulating the evolution of individual glaciers over decadal to centennial time scales with ice-dynamical models. We hereby highlight recent advances in the field and emphasize how these go hand-in-hand with an increasing availability of on-site and remotely sensed observations. We also focus on the gap between simplified studies that use parameterizations, typically used for regional and global projections, and detailed assessments for individual glaciers, and explain how recent advances now allow including ice dynamics when modeling glaciers at larger spatial scales. Finally, we provide concrete recommendations concerning the steps and factors to be considered when modeling the evolution of glaciers. We suggest paying particular attention to the model initialization, analyzing how related uncertainties in model input influence the modeled glacier evolution and strongly recommend evaluating the simulated glacier evolution against independent data.

中文翻译：

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冰动态冰川演化建模——综述

冰川在地球系统中发挥着至关重要的作用：它们是炎热和干旱时期低洼地区的重要水供应商，并且是目前观测到的海平面上升的主要贡献者。冰川也可以作为自然灾害的来源，并具有重要的旅游价值。鉴于它们的社会重要性，人们对更好地理解和准确模拟过去和未来冰川的时间演变有着很大的科学兴趣。在这里，我们概述了使用冰动力学模型模拟单个冰川在十年到百年时间尺度上的演变的最新技术。我们在此强调该领域的最新进展，并强调这些进展如何与现场和遥感观测的日益普及相结合。我们还关注使用参数化的简化研究（通常用于区域和全球预测）与对单个冰川的详细评估之间的差距，并解释最近的进展如何在更大空间尺度上模拟冰川时允许包括冰动力学。最后，我们就冰川演化建模时要考虑的步骤和因素提供了具体建议。我们建议特别注意模型初始化，分析模型输入中的相关不确定性如何影响模拟冰川演化，并强烈建议根据独立数据评估模拟冰川演化。并解释最近的进展如何允许在更大空间尺度上模拟冰川时包括冰动力学。最后，我们就冰川演化建模时要考虑的步骤和因素提供了具体建议。我们建议特别注意模型初始化，分析模型输入中的相关不确定性如何影响模拟冰川演化，并强烈建议根据独立数据评估模拟冰川演化。并解释最近的进展如何允许在更大空间尺度上模拟冰川时包括冰动力学。最后，我们就冰川演化建模时要考虑的步骤和因素提供了具体建议。我们建议特别注意模型初始化，分析模型输入中的相关不确定性如何影响模拟冰川演化，并强烈建议根据独立数据评估模拟冰川演化。