We examined the long-term risk for stalking recidivism and the predictive validity of ratings made using the Guidelines for Stalking Assessment and Management (SAM) in 100 stalking offenders from a forensic clinic. Overall, 45 offenders were convicted of, charged with, or the subject of police investigation for stalking-related offenses during a potential time at risk that averaged 13.47 years. Survival analyses using the Cox proportional hazards model indicated that a composite score of the presence of SAM risk factors was significantly predictive of recidivism and had significant incremental validity relative to total scores on two scales commonly used in violence risk assessment, the Screening Version of the Hare Psychopathy Checklist–Revised (PCL:SV) and the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG). Overall ratings of risk made using the SAM, however, were not significantly predictive of recidivism. We discuss the potential uses of the SAM in stalking risk assessment and provide recommendations for future research.

我们检查了缠扰行为再犯的长期风险，以及使用缠扰行为评估和管理指南 (SAM) 对法医诊所的 100 名缠扰行为犯罪者进行评级的预测有效性。总体而言，有 45 名罪犯在平均 13.47 年的潜在风险时间内因与跟踪相关的罪行被定罪、指控或成为警方调查的对象。使用 Cox 比例风险模型进行的生存分析表明，存在 SAM 风险因素的综合评分可显着预测累犯，并且相对于暴力风险评估中常用的两个量表（Hare 筛选版）的总分具有显着的增量有效性精神病检查表修订版 (PCL:SV) 和暴力风险评估指南 (VRAG)。使用 SAM 进行的总体风险评级，然而，并不能显着预测累犯。我们讨论了 SAM 在跟踪风险评估中的潜在用途，并为未来的研究提供了建议。