npj Climate and Atmospheric Science ( IF 9 ) Pub Date : 2022-04-14 , DOI: 10.1038/s41612-022-00251-9 Jung Choi , Seok-Woo Son
The growing demand for skillful near-term climate prediction encourages an improved prediction of low-frequency sea surface temperature (SST) variabilities such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). This study assesses their seasonal-to-decadal prediction skills using large ensembles of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 5 and 6 retrospective decadal predictions. A multi-model ensemble reforecast successfully predicts ENSO over a year in advance. While its seasonal prediction skill in the following spring and summer is achieved by multi-model ensemble averaging of relatively smaller ensemble members, the multi-year prediction of winter ENSO needs a larger ensemble size. The PDO is significantly predicted at a lead time of five-to-nine years but such a long-lead prediction is sourced from external radiative forcing instead of initialization, as evidenced from uninitialized historical simulations. The effect of model initialization lasts only two years. These results confirm that both the model initialization and the proper estimate of near-term radiative forcing are required to improve the seasonal-to-decadal prediction in the Pacific Basin.
中文翻译:
厄尔尼诺-南方涛动和太平洋年代际涛动的季节-年代际预报
对熟练的近期气候预测日益增长的需求促进了对低频海表温度 (SST) 变化的预测的改进,例如厄尔尼诺-南方涛动 (ENSO) 和太平洋年代际涛动 (PDO)。本研究使用耦合模型比对项目第 5 阶段和第 6 阶段回顾性年代际预测的大型集合来评估他们的季节到年代际预测技能。多模式集合重预报成功地提前一年预测了 ENSO。虽然它在接下来的春夏季节的季节预测技巧是通过对相对较小的集合成员进行多模式集合平均来实现的,但冬季ENSO的多年预测需要更大的集合规模。PDO 在 5 到 9 年的提前期被显着预测,但如此长的提前期预测来自外部辐射强迫而不是初始化,未初始化的历史模拟证明了这一点。模型初始化的效果只持续了两年。这些结果证实,需要模型初始化和正确估计近期辐射强迫来改进太平洋盆地的季节到年代际预测。