This paper develops methodologies and identifies data gaps for understanding the impacts of hurricanes on forest product markets. Using the case of Hurricane Michael, we simulate damage to forest growing stock and forest area from alternative damage estimations (inventory and remote sensed). We then consider alternative scenarios for replanting, and the spatial distribution of salvage consumption. Beyond previous analyses we examine both short run and long run market outcomes resulting from the age demographics of standing timber post-hurricane. The simulation framework developed allows for the comparison of welfare and forest carbon consequences. Across scenarios the hurricane causes a welfare increase for pine sawtimber producers ranging from 1.2 to 1.5 times the no-hurricane baseline, and a loss for pine sawtimber consumers ranging from 0.6 to 0.8 times the baseline. Hardwood sawtimber producers gain by equivalent factors of 1.8, and consumers lose half. All scenarios gained forest carbon on the order of 1.2 times the pre-hurricane forest carbon, however, the no-hurricane case exhibited both higher carbon and carbon per unit area after a 40-year simulation.

本文开发了方法并确定了数据差距，以了解飓风对林产品市场的影响。使用飓风迈克尔的案例，我们通过替代损害估计（库存和遥感）模拟对森林蓄积量和森林面积的损害。然后，我们考虑重新种植的替代方案，以及打捞消费的空间分布。除了之前的分析，我们还研究了飓风过后立木的年龄人口统计数据所产生的短期和长期市场结果。开发的模拟框架允许比较福利和森林碳后果。在各种情景中，飓风给松木锯材生产商带来的福利增加了无飓风基线的 1.2 到 1.5 倍，而松木锯材消费者的损失则为 0。基线的 6 到 0.8 倍。硬木锯材生产商收益相当于 1.8 倍，消费者损失一半。所有情景都获得了飓风前森林碳的 1.2 倍数量级的森林碳，然而，在 40 年的模拟后，无飓风情况下的碳和单位面积碳均较高。