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How could observed sowing dates contribute to maize potential yield under climate change in Northeast China based on APSIM model
European Journal of Agronomy ( IF 5.2 ) Pub Date : 2022-04-13 , DOI: 10.1016/j.eja.2022.126511
Guangxin Zhu , Zhijuan Liu , Suliang Qiao , Zhentao Zhang , Qiuwan Huang , Zhenge Su , Xiaoguang Yang

The Northeast China (NEC) accounts for more than 30% of the national total maize planted area (grain yield). Adjusting the sowing dates has been considered an effective measure to adapt to climate change, but there was little evidence that how well the producers had done. In this study, we used phenology observations at 67 stations from 1981 to 2014 to detect trends in actual sowing dates, then the agricultural production systems simulator, APSIM-Maize model, was used to assess the effects of changes in observed sowing dates on maize phenology and yields. During the past 34-year period, the actual maize sowing dates show a delaying tendency, at a rate of 1–6 days per decade, but there are significant fluctuations among years. For per day delay in the sowing dates, the whole growing season was shortened by 0.1%. Delaying sowing dates reduced the solar radiation interception during the vegetative period as well as the thermal time during the reproductive period. As a result, the overall maize potential yield was negatively affected in NEC; for per day delay in the sowing dates, the potential yield was decreased by 0.6%. By contrast, advancing sowing dates in some years led to increases in both the solar radiation interception during the vegetative period and the thermal time during the reproductive period. However, these increases showed various effects on the maize potential yield across different parts of the study region. We detected a positive effect of advancing sowing dates on maize potential yield in the high latitudes, at a rate of up to 1.6%. By contrast, in the low latitudes, the negative effect of advancing sowing dates on maize potential yield was dominant, at a rate of up to 2.7%.



中文翻译:

基于APSIM模型的东北气候变化条件下播期观测对玉米潜在产量的影响

东北地区(NEC)占全国玉米总种植面积(粮食产量)的30%以上。调整播种日期被认为是适应气候变化的有效措施,但几乎没有证据表明生产者做得如何。在本研究中,我们利用 1981 年至 2014 年 67 个站点的物候观测来检测实际播期的趋势,然后使用农业生产系统模拟器 APSIM-Maize 模型评估观测播期的变化对玉米物候的影响和产量。在过去的 34 年中,玉米实际播种日期呈现出延迟趋势,每 10 年 1-6 天,但年际波动较大。播种日期每延迟一天,整个生长季节就会缩短 0.1%。延迟播种日期减少了营养期的太阳辐射拦截以及生殖期的热时间。因此,NEC 的整体玉米潜在产量受到负面影响;播期每延迟一天,潜在产量就会下降 0.6%。相比之下,某些年份的提前播种日期导致营养期的太阳辐射截获和生殖期的热时间增加。然而,这些增加对研究区域不同地区的玉米潜在产量产生了不同的影响。我们发现提前播种日期对高纬度地区玉米潜在产量的积极影响高达 1.6%。相比之下,在低纬度地区,

更新日期:2022-04-13
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