ABSTRACT

This article investigates whether gold will always shine amid world uncertainty or not. The quantile on quantile (QQ) approach is employed to detect the mutual relationship between the world uncertainty index (WUI) and gold price (GP). We find the impacts of WUI on GP, in different quantiles, varies and runs in cycles. The positive influence that ripples from WUI toward GP indicates that gold will shine over economic or political chaos periods. However, this viewpoint cannot be recognized when considering the negative impacts of the WUI on GP. Also, by evaluating the compound influence from GP to WUI, we suggest that the gold market acts as a barometer of global risk according to the market states.

摘要

本文探讨黄金是否会在世界不确定性中始终闪耀。分位数对分位数（QQ）方法用于检测世界不确定性指数（WUI）和黄金价格（GP）之间的相互关系。我们发现 WUI 对 GP 的影响，在不同的分位数，变化和循环运行。WUI 对 GP 产生的积极影响表明，黄金将在经济或政治混乱时期大放异彩。然而，当考虑到 WUI 对 GP 的负面影响时，这种观点是无法被认可的。此外，通过评估从 GP 到 WUI 的复合影响，我们建议根据市场状况，黄金市场充当全球风险的晴雨表。