ABSTRACT

This study aimed to investigate the predictability of writing development and if scores on a writing test in the first weeks of first grade accurately predict students’ placements into different proficiency groups. Participants were 832 first grade students in Norway. Writing proficiency was measured twice, at the start and at the end of first grade (time 1 and time 2, respectively). Multilevel linear regression analysis showed that writing proficiency measures at time 1 were significant predictors of writing proficiency at time 2. The results also showed that measures at time 1 could identify students running the risk of not meeting expectations with high precision. However, the results also revealed a substantial proportion of false positives. The results are interpreted and discussed from a formative writing assessment perspective.

摘要

本研究旨在调查写作发展的可预测性，以及一年级前几周的写作考试成绩是否能准确预测学生在不同能力组中的分班情况。参与者是挪威的 832 名一年级学生。在一年级开始和结束时（分别为时间 1 和时间 2）测量写作水平两次。多级线性回归分析表明，时间 1 的写作能力测量是时间 2 写作能力的显着预测因子。结果还表明，时间 1 的测量可以高精度地识别出有未达到预期风险的学生。然而，结果也显示了相当大比例的误报。从形成性写作评估的角度解释和讨论结果。