Does an improvement in growth prospects (technological news shock) lead to a fall in the trade balance? We introduce a novel news shock identification scheme and obtain in a panel vector autoregression (VAR) for the G7 countries the following results. Positive news shocks have negative effects on the trade balance in the United States and Japan. However, in other G7 countries, the effects are positive to a great extent. The differences in trade balance dynamics are mainly due to heterogeneous reactions of labour markets and wealth effects. Further, the terms of trade and exchange rate movements play an important role in explaining the results. Therefore, policy recommendations aimed at reducing the trade imbalances through productivity-enhancing reforms in advanced economies might not entail the targeted effects.

中文翻译：

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发达经济体的增长前景和贸易平衡*

增长前景的改善（技术新闻冲击）是否会导致贸易平衡下降？我们引入了一种新的新闻冲击识别方案，并在 G7 国家的面板向量自回归 (VAR) 中获得以下结果。正面消息冲击对美国和日本的贸易平衡产生负面影响。然而，在其他七国集团国家，这种影响在很大程度上是积极的。贸易平衡动态的差异主要是由于劳动力市场和财富效应的异质反应。此外，贸易条件和汇率变动在解释结果方面起着重要作用。因此，旨在通过发达经济体提高生产力的改革来减少贸易失衡的政策建议可能不会产生目标效果。