Under the Paris Agreement, nations made pledges known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs): national climate plans detailing countries’ ambitions to adapt to climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Population growth is a driver of both climate vulnerability and climate-altering emissions. We asked, to what extent do countries take population growth into account in their NDCs, beyond simple statements of population trends? Our research method was a comprehensive text review of 164 NDCs submitted by countries. About one-third (49) of countries’ NDCs either link population growth to a negative effect and/or identify population growth as a challenge or trend affecting societal needs. Common impacts of population growth noted were increased energy demand, natural resource degradation, vulnerability to climate impacts, and decreased food and water security. Seven NDCs included strategies to slow population growth, and none specified implementation measures. Overall, the adaptation potential and mitigation co-benefits associated with slowing population growth through meeting the unmet need for family planning are largely overlooked in national NDC documents, suggesting that they are also neglected in countries’ climate change planning. In upcoming rounds of NDC updates, we recommend that governments consider the potential impact of population growth on adaptation and mitigation efforts, prioritize meeting their unmet needs for family planning, and integrate population-health-environment projects in their national climate plans.

根据《巴黎协定》，各国做出了称为国家自主贡献 (NDC) 的承诺：国家气候计划详细说明了各国适应气候变化和减少温室气体排放的雄心。人口增长是气候脆弱性和改变气候的排放的驱动因素。我们问，除了简单的人口趋势陈述之外，各国在其国家自主贡献中在多大程度上考虑了人口增长？我们的研究方法是对各国提交的 164 份 NDC 进行全面的文本审查。大约三分之一 (49) 的国家自主贡献将人口增长与负面影响联系起来和/或将人口增长确定为影响社会需求的挑战或趋势。人口增长的共同影响是能源需求增加、自然资源退化、易受气候影响、食品和水的安全性下降。七个国家自主贡献包括减缓人口增长的战略，但没有具体的实施措施。总体而言，通过满足未满足的计划生育需求而减缓人口增长所带来的适应潜力和减缓协同效益在国家 NDC 文件中很大程度上被忽视了，这表明它们在各国的气候变化规划中也被忽视了。在即将到来的 NDC 更新中，我们建议各国政府考虑人口增长对适应和减缓工作的潜在影响，优先满足其未满足的计划生育需求，并将人口-健康-环境项目纳入其国家气候计划。通过满足未满足的计划生育需求而减缓人口增长所带来的适应潜力和减缓协同效益在国家 NDC 文件中很大程度上被忽视，这表明它们在各国的气候变化规划中也被忽视了。在即将到来的 NDC 更新中，我们建议各国政府考虑人口增长对适应和减缓工作的潜在影响，优先满足其未满足的计划生育需求，并将人口-健康-环境项目纳入其国家气候计划。通过满足未满足的计划生育需求而减缓人口增长所带来的适应潜力和减缓协同效益在国家 NDC 文件中很大程度上被忽视，这表明它们在各国的气候变化规划中也被忽视了。在即将到来的 NDC 更新中，我们建议各国政府考虑人口增长对适应和减缓工作的潜在影响，优先满足其未满足的计划生育需求，并将人口-健康-环境项目纳入其国家气候计划。