Abstract

Latent preferences feature prominently in rational choice and symbolic interaction theories but are difficult to capture empirically. To address this limitation, we introduce a discrete choice random utility model to estimate latent preferences for risk. Using data from the Pathways to Desistance study, we estimate the statistical model and demonstrate the usefulness of the preference estimates. We find that risk preferences vary between- and within-individuals over time and that individuals become risk averse as they age in a manner that can help explain desistance from crime. Further, preferences and perceptions jointly impact offending. Finally, we find that the factors predicting one’s perceptions and one’s preferences often differ in theoretically meaningful ways. We conclude that the estimate of preferences derived from the random utility model demonstrate construct validity and discuss how the model can be used to test outstanding issues in criminology.

摘要

潜在偏好在理性选择和符号互动理论中占据显着地位，但很难凭经验捕捉。为了解决这个限制，我们引入了离散选择随机效用模型来估计风险的潜在偏好。使用来自“终结之路”研究的数据，我们估计了统计模型并证明了偏好估计的有用性。我们发现，随着时间的推移，个人之间和个人内部的风险偏好会发生变化，并且随着年龄的增长，个人会变得厌恶风险，这有助于解释停止犯罪的原因。此外，偏好和看法共同影响犯罪行为。最后，我们发现预测一个人的看法和偏好的因素通常在理论上有意义的方式上有所不同。