Numerical modelling is widely used to estimate seismic potential in mines. Several numerical methods, along with different interpretation techniques, allow estimating the seismic potential at different stages of a mine or tunnel construction. However, none of the existing methods considers the magnitude of seismic events as a distribution of values, rather all methods focus on obtaining a single value representative of the seismic conditions for each excavation stage. The objective of this study was to develop a method based on the implicit generation of a synthetic distribution of seismic data and on the results of numerical modelling, providing a means to decompose the modelling results into a statistical distribution of maximum magnitudes. The results of this method provide a statistical distribution of the maximum magnitudes, based on existing plastic modelling results and assumptions about the failure mechanism. This work provides an engineering tool to evaluate the probability of the maximum seismic event.

数值模拟被广泛用于估计矿山的地震潜力。几种数值方法，连同不同的解释技术，可以估计矿山或隧道施工不同阶段的地震潜力。然而，现有的方法都没有将地震事件的大小视为值的分布，而是所有方法都专注于获得代表每个挖掘阶段的地震条件的单个值。本研究的目的是开发一种基于地震数据合成分布的隐式生成和数值模拟结果的方法，提供一种将模拟结果分解为最大震级统计分布的方法。基于现有的塑料建模结果和有关失效机制的假设，该方法的结果提供了最大幅度的统计分布。