Ecological niche models have proved to be a powerful tool in assessing invasiveness risk of alien species, allowing the optimization of control strategies. Vespa velutina (Hymenoptera: Vespidae) is an invasive species with strong ecological, economical and health impacts in Europe after it was first reported in France in 2004. It was detected for the first time on a Mediterranean island (Mallorca, Balearic Islands, Spain) in 2015, where a single nest was found in the northwest of the island. Immediately, a control plan was implemented. In this study, we analysed 30 occurrence data in Mallorca island to assess the suitability distribution predicted for Mediterranean island conditions using an ensemble of small models. We obtained high values of AUC (0.9165), Somers’ D (0.8331), Boyce (0.7611) and TSS (0.7754) as quality parameters of the final ensembled model. We show for the first time that there are suitable areas where this species can expand and stablish, mainly in steeper slopes and low isothermality zones. Likewise, the distribution suitability of V. velutina for other Mediterranean islands (Ibiza, Formentera, Menorca, Corsica, Sardinia, Sicily, Crete and Cyprus) was also explored, showing potentially suitable zones. This study provides valuable information regarding the areas in the Mediterranean islands under risk of invasion, and it could be used by both scientists and managers for an early detection and control of the invasive species due to its cost-effectiveness in terms of conservation.

生态位模型已被证明是评估外来物种入侵风险的有力工具，可以优化控制策略。大黄蜂（膜翅目：黄蜂科）是一种入侵物种，自 2004 年在法国首次报道后，在欧洲具有强烈的生态、经济和健康影响。2015 年首次在地中海岛屿（马略卡岛、巴利阿里群岛、西班牙）发现，在该岛西北部发现了一个巢穴。立即实施了控制计划。在这项研究中，我们分析了马略卡岛的 30 个发生数据，以评估使用一组小型模型预测的地中海岛屿条件的适宜性分布。我们获得了较高的 AUC (0.9165)、Somers' D (0.8331)、Boyce (0.7611) 和 TSS (0.7754) 作为最终集成模型的质量参数。我们首次展示了该物种可以扩张和稳定的合适区域，主要是在更陡峭的斜坡和低等温区。还探索了其他地中海岛屿（伊比沙岛、福门特拉岛、梅诺卡岛、科西嘉岛、撒丁岛、西西里岛、克里特岛和塞浦路斯）的V. velutina ，显示了潜在的合适区域。这项研究提供了有关地中海岛屿面临入侵风险的地区的宝贵信息，由于其在保护方面的成本效益，科学家和管理人员都可以使用它来早期发现和控制入侵物种。