ABSTRACT

In England, failing to achieve a ‘good pass’ (C/4 grade) in key subjects is thought to have serious negative implications. Yet evidence on this issue remains relatively sparse. This paper therefore presents new evidence on the link between meeting a key threshold on high-stakes examination and a wide array of future outcomes. Using Next Steps survey data collected from around 4,000 young people in England, we explore the short-to-medium term benefits of achieving a ‘good pass’ (grade C/4) in English Language, double science and mathematics. Results from our regression analyses point towards a sizable association with future educational attainment; those who achieve a good pass in GCSE mathematics are around 5 percentage points more likely to hold a university degree by age 26 than observationally similar individuals who fail to meet this threshold. No link is found with future wellbeing and mental health, while results for labour market outcomes are somewhat mixed. The findings potentially motivate the need for GCSEs to move away from awarding a set of discrete grades and towards a continuous measurement scale. Alternatively, if discrete grades are to be retained, computer adaptive testing should be introduced for GCSEs to increase measurement precision around high-stakes grade boundaries.

摘要

在英格兰，关键科目未能取得“良好及格”（C/4 级）被认为具有严重的负面影响。然而，关于这个问题的证据仍然相对稀少。因此，本文提供了关于满足高风险考试的关键门槛与一系列未来结果之间联系的新证据。使用从英格兰约 4,000 名年轻人收集的下一步调查数据，我们探讨了在英语语言、双科学和数学方面取得“良好及格”（C/4 级）的短期到中期好处。我们的回归分析结果表明与未来的教育程度有相当大的关联；那些在 GCSE 数学上取得良好成绩的人在 26 岁时获得大学学位的可能性比观察结果相似但未能达到这一门槛的人高出约 5 个百分点。未发现与未来福祉和心理健康之间的联系，而劳动力市场结果的结果有些喜忧参半。这些发现可能会促使 GCSE 需要从授予一组离散的成绩转向连续的衡量标准。或者，如果要保留离散等级，则应为 GCSE 引入计算机自适应测试，以提高高风险等级边界周围的测量精度。