Wildlife vehicle-collision is one of the most visible negative effects that roads exerts on animals and has increased dramatically across the world. Despite its conspicuousness, studies about roadkills in cities have been neglected lacking in road ecology. We developed new approach for estimating capybara roadkill hotspots in Campo Grande, a big city in Brazil. We also investigated potential driving factors correlated with roadkill occurrence, to build a predictive roadkill map for the entire city and propose mitigation measures. We monitored capybara roadkills for thirteen years and found hotspots using a graph-based kernel density estimation. We tested four predictors to identify which characteristics influence roadkill occurrence: distance from water bodies, distance from parks, vegetation cover, and traffic flow. We used a generalized linear mixed model to test for significant effects and to predict roadkill occurrences. Hotspots analysis showed four hotspots surrounding large green areas and water bodies, probably due to capybara habitat and physiological requirements. The predictive map shows latent hotspots, locations that have the characteristics necessary for a capybara to live but where we do not have observed deaths. To mitigate risk, we recommend using speed reduction tools around parks. A decrease in capybaras roadkills could positively impact human population welfare and material damage caused by these collisions.

野生动物车辆碰撞是道路对动物造成的最明显的负面影响之一，并且在世界范围内急剧增加。尽管其引人注目，但由于缺乏道路生态学，对城市道路杀伤力的研究一直被忽视。我们开发了一种新方法来估计巴西大城市 Campo Grande 的水豚道路杀伤热点。我们还调查了与道路事故发生相关的潜在驱动因素，以构建整个城市的预测性道路事故地图并提出缓解措施。我们监测了 13 年的 capybara roadkills 并使用基于图形的内核密度估计发现了热点。我们测试了四个预测变量，以确定哪些特征会影响道路事故的发生：与水体的距离、与公园的距离、植被覆盖和交通流量。我们使用广义线性混合模型来测试显着影响并预测道路事故的发生。热点分析显示，大片绿地和水体周围有四个热点，可能是由于水豚栖息地和生理需求。预测地图显示了潜在的热点，即具有水豚生存所必需的特征但我们没有观察到死亡的位置。为了降低风险，我们建议在公园周围使用减速工具。水豚道路杀伤力的减少可能会对这些碰撞造成的人口福利和物质损失产生积极影响。预测地图显示了潜在的热点，即具有水豚生存所必需的特征但我们没有观察到死亡的位置。为了降低风险，我们建议在公园周围使用减速工具。水豚道路杀伤力的减少可能会对这些碰撞造成的人口福利和物质损失产生积极影响。预测地图显示了潜在的热点，即具有水豚生存所必需的特征但我们没有观察到死亡的位置。为了降低风险，我们建议在公园周围使用减速工具。水豚道路杀伤力的减少可能会对这些碰撞造成的人口福利和物质损失产生积极影响。