This prospective longitudinal study from birth to late adolescence investigated how early risk predicted subsequent aggression in middle childhood and bullying perpetration, bullying victimization, and violence victimization in adolescence. In addition, the moderating role of protective factors (i.e., maternal sensitivity, positive peers, and school connectedness) on these associations were examined. Caregiver-infant dyads (N = 216; 72% Black/African American) were recruited as part of a longitudinal study on substance exposed youth. Data using multiple methods and informants (observations, interviews, caregiver, and child/youth self-reports) were collected from dyads in early childhood (EC, birth to 48 months), middle childhood (MC, i.e., 84 months), early adolescence (EA, M = 13.26 years, SD = .83) and later adolescence (LA, M = 15.08 years, SD = .83). A developmental cascading path model was tested. There were direct associations between EC maternal harsh parenting and aggression in MC. In turn, MC aggression was associated with higher violence victimization and bullying in EA. Finally, EA violence victimization was then associated with higher levels of bullying as well as victimization from bullying in LA. Consistent with predictions, there was also evidence that protective factors (i.e., maternal sensitivity and positive peers) moderated the impact of predictor variables on aggression and bullying outcomes. Specifically, maternal sensitivity moderated the link between EC and MC aggression, such that those with moderately high levels of maternal sensitivity showed a negative relation between EC and MC aggression, whereas those with low levels of maternal sensitivity showed continuity in aggression. Positive peer influence moderated the link between violence victimization in EA and bullying in LA, such that children high on both violence victimization and positive peers had the highest levels of bullying victimization.

这项从出生到青春期后期的前瞻性纵向研究调查了早期风险如何预测童年中期的攻击行为以及青春期的欺凌行为、欺凌受害和暴力受害。此外，还研究了保护性因素（即母亲敏感性、积极的同伴和学校联系）对这些关联的调节作用。招募了照顾者-婴儿二人组（N = 216；72% 黑人/非裔美国人），作为针对物质暴露青少年的纵向研究的一部分。使用多种方法和信息提供者（观察、访谈、照顾者和儿童/青少年自我报告）从幼儿期（EC，出生至 48 个月）、童年中期（MC，即 84 个月）、青春期早期的二人中收集数据（EA，M = 13.26 岁，SD = .83）和青春期后期（LA，M = 15.08 岁，SD = .83）。测试了发展级联路径模型。EC 母亲严厉的养育方式与 MC 中的攻击性之间存在直接关联。反过来，MC 的攻击性与 EA 中更高的暴力受害和欺凌行为相关。最后，EA 暴力受害与较高水平的欺凌行为以及洛杉矶欺凌行为的受害情况相关。与预测一致，还有证据表明保护性因素（即母亲敏感性和积极的同伴）调节了预测变量对攻击性和欺凌结果的影响。具体来说，母体敏感性调节了 EC 和 MC 攻击性之间的联系，因此母体敏感性中等高水平的人表现出 EC 和 MC 攻击性之间的负相关，而母体敏感性水平低的人则表现出攻击性的连续性。积极的同伴影响调节了 EA 的暴力受害率与洛杉矶的欺凌行为之间的联系，因此，暴力受害率和积极同龄人均较高的儿童的欺凌受害率最高。