Recent literature has described a rise in the activity of right-wing extremists in the United States. Several studies have examined this phenomenon in relation to the actions of President Trump. Comparatively, little research has examined the impact of the Obama presidency on right-wing extremism despite a peak in the number of right-wing extremist groups during his second term. Using a power-threat framework, this study examines the unique effects of the presidential candidacies and elections of Obama and Trump on the frequency of attacks committed by right-wing extremists in the U.S. as documented in the Global Terrorism Database (GTD). Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modeling is applied to monthly counts (n = 151) of 141 domestic terrorist attacks committed by right-wing extremists that occurred in the U.S. between June 3, 2006, and December 31, 2018. Consistent with the political threat hypothesis, our findings indicate that the re-election of President Obama was associated with a gradual, permanent increase in the frequency of attacks by right-wing extremists. Yet, none of the intervention components associated with his first candidacy or election were associated with statistically significant changes in right-wing terrorist attacks. In contrast, and in accordance with the emboldenment hypothesis, all intervention components associated with the candidacy and election of Donald Trump predicted permanent increases in the frequency of attacks—and most were abrupt in nature. In view of these findings, political leaders on the left and right must anticipate the ability of their rhetoric and behavior to both alienate and embolden extremist groups and individuals, particularly within the far-right. As our findings demonstrate, failure to do so risks contributing to increased activity among far-right extremists as a product of either political threat or emboldenment.

最近的文献描述了美国右翼极端分子活动的增加。几项研究已经将这一现象与特朗普总统的行为联系起来。相比之下，尽管在他的第二个任期内右翼极端主义团体的数量达到顶峰，但很少有研究调查奥巴马总统任期对右翼极端主义的影响。本研究使用权力威胁框架，研究了全球恐怖主义数据库 (GTD) 中记录的总统候选人和奥巴马和特朗普的选举对美国右翼极端分子发动袭击频率的独特影响。自回归综合移动平均 (ARIMA) 模型应用于月计数 ( n= 151) 在 2006 年 6 月 3 日至 2018 年 12 月 31 日期间在美国发生的 141 起由右翼极端分子实施的国内恐怖袭击事件中。与政治威胁假设一致，我们的研究结果表明，奥巴马总统的连任是与右翼极端分子的袭击频率逐渐、永久增加有关。然而，与他的第一候选资格或选举相关的干预组成部分都没有与右翼恐怖主义攻击的统计上显着的变化有关。相比之下，根据储备假设，与唐纳德特朗普的候选资格和选举相关的所有干预组成部分预计攻击频率的永久性增加 - 最自然。鉴于这些发现，左翼和右翼的政治领导人必须预见到他们的言辞和行为能够疏远和鼓励极端主义团体和个人，特别是在极右翼内部。正如我们的研究结果所表明的那样，不这样做可能会导致极右翼极端分子的活动增加，这是政治威胁或胆量的产物。