Abstract

What factors might explain the cross-country variations in COVID-19 public performances and what lessons can be drawn to be better-prepared for future pandemics? This study focuses on the effects of policy stringency on COVID-19 public health outcomes to gain insights into national-level state responses to COVID-19 and the conditions for their effectiveness. Using data from 136 countries comprising 91.4% of the global population, we find that more stringent policies lead to lower infection and death rates. More importantly, the negative effects of restrictive policies on infection and death rates are moderated by political trust and democracy levels, possibly through the mechanism of popular compliance with government policies. Under conditions of higher political trust and lower democracy levels, the policy effects on infection and death rates are greater. However, while the results suggest the importance of policy stringency and political trust, we should not draw the conclusion that authoritarian political systems are more conducive to policy effectiveness. When comparing the moderating effects of political trust and democracy, political trust is more important as a facilitating factor. Therefore, in addition to making scientifically-supported policies, fostering political trust should be an important goal for governments to be better prepared for future pandemics.

摘要

哪些因素可以解释 COVID-19 公开表演的跨国差异，以及可以吸取哪些经验教训为未来的流行病做好更好的准备？本研究侧重于政策严格性对 COVID-19 公共卫生结果的影响，以深入了解国家级各州对 COVID-19 的反应及其有效性的条件。使用来自占全球人口 91.4% 的 136 个国家的数据，我们发现更严格的政策可以降低感染率和死亡率。更重要的是，限制性政策对感染率和死亡率的负面影响受到政治信任和民主水平的缓和，可能是通过民众遵守政府政策的机制。在政治信任度较高、民主程度较低的条件下，政策对感染率和死亡率的影响更大。然而，虽然结果表明了政策严格性和政治信任的重要性，但我们不应得出威权政治制度更有利于政策有效性的结论。在比较政治信任和民主的调节作用时，政治信任作为促进因素更为重要。因此，除了制定科学支持的政策外，培养政治信任应该是政府更好地为未来的流行病做好准备的重要目标。在比较政治信任和民主的调节作用时，政治信任作为促进因素更为重要。因此，除了制定科学支持的政策外，培养政治信任应该是政府更好地为未来的流行病做好准备的重要目标。在比较政治信任和民主的调节作用时，政治信任作为促进因素更为重要。因此，除了制定科学支持的政策外，培养政治信任应该是政府更好地为未来的流行病做好准备的重要目标。