Abstract

There has been an increasing number of studies on the potential effects of land-use change on the carbon (C) balance. However, few of these studies have focused on arid regions. Cropland in Xinjiang, a typical arid region in China, has expanded dramatically over the last 40 years. This study applied the Carbon Bookkeeping Model to estimate the changes in C stocks resulting from cropland expansion in Xinjiang from 1975 to 2015. The results showed that the area of cropland increased by a factor of ∼1.6. This increase was driven by advancements in agricultural technology and favorable agricultural policies. The increase in cropland area of 2.03 Mha (M = 10⁶) was the result of the clearing of ∼4.09 Mha land for cropland and the conversion of 2.06 Mha cropland to other land cover types. The expansion in cropland resulted in substantial sequestration of C, with that in Xinjiang amounting to 94.24 Tg C (1Tg = 10¹²g), accounting for 1.4% of the regional C stocks. Land clearing for cropland (LCC) had the greatest contribution to C sequestration in Xinjiang. The rate of increase in C density through LCC was 0.61 Mg C ha⁻¹a⁻¹ and 1.54 Mg C ha⁻¹a⁻¹ from 1975 to 2004 and 2005 to 2015, respectively. C sequestration due to cropland loss (CLO) of 29.40 Tg C was attributed to the expansion of built-up land and afforestation. Sustainable agricultural activities represented by large-scale clearing for cropland were a major C sink in Xinjiang. Therefore, sustainable management of cropland is essential for maintaining a high C density and preventing loss of C to the atmosphere through cropland abandonment in the future.