There has been a recent theoretical shift toward the inclusion of protective factors within risk assessment. However, there is a lack of empirical evidence surrounding this practice in unique forensic populations. Using a long-term retrospective design, we examined the predictive and incremental validity of the protective factor resistance to antisocial peers and the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide—Revised in 119 individuals who were found Not Criminally Responsible on Account of Mental Disorder (NCRMD) as adolescents. The results indicated that resistance to antisocial peers significantly predicted general nonrecidivism (area under the curve [AUC] = .647) and violent nonrecidivism (AUC = .654) in the long term (maximum 35-year follow-up). Incorporation of resistance to antisocial peers into the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide—Revised did not significantly increase the incremental validity for general or violent recidivism. Using logistic regression, adolescents’ age at their NCRMD start date had no significant relationship with recidivism and was unrelated to the protective effect of resistance to antisocial peers.

最近的理论转变为将保护因素纳入风险评估。然而，在独特的法医人群中缺乏围绕这种做法的经验证据。使用长期回顾性设计，我们检查了保护因素抵抗反社会同伴和暴力风险评估指南的预测和增量有效性 -在 119 名因精神障碍 (NCRMD) 被认定为青少年而无刑事责任的个人中修订. 结果表明，在长期（最长 35 年的随访）中，对反社会同伴的抵抗显着预测了一般非累犯（曲线下面积 [AUC] = .647）和暴力非累犯（AUC = .654）。将对反社会同伴的抵抗纳入暴力风险评估指南——修订版并没有显着增加一般或暴力累犯的增量有效性。使用逻辑回归，青少年在 NCRMD 开始日期的年龄与累犯没有显着关系，并且与抵抗反社会同伴的保护作用无关。