This paper analyzes the impact of pronatalist rhetoric on women's fertility preferences in Turkey using a mixed-methods approach. Since 2008, Prime Minister (and since 2014 President) Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has given speeches about the necessity of increasing fertility and has demanded at least three children from families. This call was supported by monetary incentives in 2015. I analyze the impact of the rhetoric on women's fertility preferences between 2008 and 2013. In the first part of the paper, I use qualitative data I collected through in-depth interviews in 2013 to show a relationship between women's political orientation and their acceptance of the rhetoric. Then, using quantitative data from the 2008 and 2013 rounds of the Turkey Demographic and Health Surveys, I analyze whether the pronatalist rhetoric had an independent effect on increasing fertility preferences. An individual-level religiosity variable is used as a proxy to account for women's responsiveness to the rhetoric. I find that religiosity was positively related to women's desire to have a third child in both 2008 and 2013, but it was statistically significant only in 2013 after the rhetoric had been widely circulated in the media.

中文翻译：

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产前论对土耳其女性生育偏好的影响

本文使用混合方法分析了产前论言论对土耳其女性生育偏好的影响。自 2008 年以来，总理（以及自 2014 年以来的总统）雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安（Recep Tayyip Erdoğan）就提高生育率的必要性发表演讲，并要求家庭至少生三个孩子。这一呼吁在 2015 年得到了货币激励措施的支持。我分析了 2008 年至 2013 年间言论对女性生育偏好的影响。在论文的第一部分，我使用了我在 2013 年通过深度访谈收集的定性数据来展示女性的政治取向与她们对言论的接受程度之间的关系。然后，使用 2008 年和 2013 年土耳其人口与健康调查的定量数据，我分析了先天论是否对增加生育偏好有独立影响。个人层面的宗教信仰变量被用作解释女性对修辞反应的代理。我发现，宗教信仰在 2008 年和 2013 年都与女性想要第三个孩子的愿望呈正相关，但仅在 2013 年这种言论在媒体上广为流传后，它才具有统计学意义。