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Weather shocks and migration intentions in Western Africa: insights from a multilevel analysis
Journal of Economic Geography ( IF 5.117 ) Pub Date : 2021-10-27 , DOI: 10.1093/jeg/lbab043
Simone Bertoli 1 , Frédéric Docquier 2, 3 , Hillel Rapoport 4 , Ilse Ruyssen 5, 6
Affiliation  

We use a multilevel approach to investigate whether a general and robust relationship between weather shocks and (internal and international) migration intentions can be uncovered in Western African countries. We combine individual survey data with measures of localized weather shocks for 13 countries over the 2008–2016 period. A meta-analysis on results from about 51,000 regressions is conducted to identify the specification of weather anomalies that maximizes the goodness of fit of our empirical model. We then use this best specification to document heterogeneous mobility responses to weather shocks. We find that variability in Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index/rainfall is associated with changing intentions to move locally or internationally in a few countries only. However, the significance, sign and magnitude of the effect are far from being robust and consistent across countries. These differences might be due to imperfections in the data or to differences in long-term climate conditions and adaptation capabilities. They may also suggest that credit constraints are internalized differently in different settings, or that moving internally is not a relevant option as weather conditions are spatially correlated while moving abroad is an option of last resort. Although our multilevel approach allows us to connect migration intentions with the timing and spatial dimension of weather shocks, identifying a common specification that governs weather-driven mobility decisions is a very difficult, if not impossible, task, even for countries belonging to the same region. Our findings also call for extreme caution before generalizing results from specific case studies.

中文翻译:

西非的天气冲击和移民意图:来自多层次分析的见解

我们使用多层次的方法来调查是否可以在西非国家发现天气冲击与(内部和国际)迁移意图之间的普遍而牢固的关系。我们将个人调查数据与 2008-2016 年期间 13 个国家的局部天气冲击测量值相结合。对来自大约 51,000 次回归的结果进行了荟萃分析,以确定使我们的经验模型的拟合优度最大化的天气异常规范。然后,我们使用这个最佳规范来记录对天气冲击的异构流动性响应。我们发现,标准化降水蒸散指数/降雨量的变化仅与少数国家改变本地或国际迁移意图有关。然而,意义重大,影响的迹象和幅度在各国之间远非稳健和一致。这些差异可能是由于数据不完善或长期气候条件和适应能力的差异造成的。他们还可能表明,在不同的环境中,信贷约束的内在化程度不同,或者由于天气条件在空间上是相关的,因此在国内移动不是一个相关的选择,而出国是最后的选择。尽管我们的多层次方法使我们能够将迁移意图与天气冲击的时间和空间维度联系起来,但即使对于属于同一地区的国家来说,确定一个管理天气驱动的流动性决策的通用规范即使不是不可能也非常困难。 .
更新日期:2021-10-27
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