Beginners are plagued with overconfidence. They perform the worst on tests of knowledge or skill and yet are the most overconfident. One would expect that learning would better calibrate beginners and lead to better quality decisions. However, learning can instead produce overconfidence. In this article I discuss how being beginner can lead to errors in self-assessments and riskier decisions. I review differences in beginner overconfidence in several places in the literature. First, the Dunning–Kruger Effect, which finds those with the least knowledge are the most overconfident. To be sure, beginners can range from rank beginners, those who have acquired no knowledge, to experienced beginners, beginners who having gained some but not vast knowledge. Next, I discuss the beginner's bubble that follows the trajectory of confidence and overconfidence as people transition from rank to experienced beginners. The beginner's bubble pattern finds rank beginners have insight into their poor abilities. However, with some learning there is a surge of confidence and overconfidence. Lastly, I explore differences in confidence and overconfidence as learners transition from rank to experienced beginners in other places in the literature.

中文翻译：

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初学者的心理

初学者被过度自信所困扰。他们在知识或技能测试中表现最差，但最过度自信。人们会期望学习会更好地校准初学者并导致更好的质量决策。然而，学习反而会产生过度自信。在本文中，我将讨论作为初学者如何导致自我评估错误和风险更大的决策。我在文献中的几个地方回顾了初学者过度自信的差异。首先，邓宁-克鲁格效应发现那些知识最少的人是最过度自信的。可以肯定的是，初学者的范围可以从初级的初学者，那些没有获得任何知识的人，到有经验的初学者，那些获得了一些但不是广泛知识的初学者。接下来，我讨论初学者' 当人们从等级过渡到有经验的初学者时，泡沫会遵循自信和过度自信的轨迹。初学者的气泡模式发现等级初学者对他们的能力差有洞察力。然而，随着一些学习，自信和过度自信会激增。最后，我探讨了文献中其他地方的学习者从等级过渡到有经验的初学者时自信和过度自信的差异。