Calculating the consequences of global public bads such as climate change or pandemics helps uncover the scale, distribution and structure of their economic burdens. As violent conflict affects billions of people worldwide, whether directly or indirectly, this article sets out to estimate its global macro-economic repercussions. Using a novel methodology that accounts for multiple dimensions of war, the article finds that, in the absence of violent conflict since 1970, the level of global GDP in 2014 would have been, on average, 12% higher. When disaggregating these results by conflict type, civil conflicts are estimated to have been the costliest by far. Income growth is found to be altered up to four years following the end of a conflict, although the direction of this relationship depends on the intensity and type of conflict. Countries also suffer significantly from fighting in neighbouring countries, thereby showing the importance of mitigating spillovers rapidly. The largest absolute losses associated with violence emanate from Asia, while many high-income economies are found to benefit economically from participating in conflicts on foreign soil. This analysis thus shows that, despite some evidence of a faster post-conflict growth and possible benefits for external participants, violent conflict leads to net global losses that linger long after peace is achieved, reducing the peace dividend. The article concludes by discussing public policy options to strengthen the benefits of peace as a global public good.

计算气候变化或流行病等全球公共不良事件的后果有助于揭示其经济负担的规模、分布和结构。由于暴力冲突直接或间接影响全球数十亿人，本文着手估计其对全球宏观经济的影响。文章使用一种新的方法来考虑战争的多个维度，发现如果自 1970 年以来没有暴力冲突，2014 年的全球 GDP 水平平均会高出 12%。当按冲突类型分解这些结果时，估计国内冲突是迄今为止代价最高的。发现冲突结束后长达四年的收入增长会发生变化，尽管这种关系的方向取决于冲突的强度和类型。各国也因邻国的战斗而深受其害，从而显示出迅速缓解溢出效应的重要性。与暴力相关的最大绝对损失来自亚洲，而许多高收入经济体被发现从参与外国领土上的冲突中获得经济利益。因此，该分析表明，尽管有一些证据表明冲突后增长更快并且可能为外部参与者带来好处，但暴力冲突导致的全球净损失在实现和平后仍会持续很长时间，从而减少了和平红利。文章最后讨论了加强和平作为全球公共产品的好处的公共政策选择。与暴力相关的最大绝对损失来自亚洲，而许多高收入经济体被发现从参与外国领土上的冲突中获得经济利益。因此，该分析表明，尽管有一些证据表明冲突后增长更快并且可能为外部参与者带来好处，但暴力冲突导致的全球净损失在实现和平后仍会持续很长时间，从而减少了和平红利。文章最后讨论了加强和平作为全球公共产品的好处的公共政策选择。与暴力相关的最大绝对损失来自亚洲，而许多高收入经济体被发现从参与外国领土上的冲突中获得经济利益。因此，该分析表明，尽管有一些证据表明冲突后增长更快并且可能为外部参与者带来好处，但暴力冲突导致的全球净损失在实现和平后仍会持续很长时间，从而减少了和平红利。文章最后讨论了加强和平作为全球公共产品的好处的公共政策选择。暴力冲突导致的全球净损失在实现和平后仍会持续很长时间，从而减少了和平红利。文章最后讨论了加强和平作为全球公共产品的好处的公共政策选择。暴力冲突导致的全球净损失在实现和平后仍会持续很长时间，从而减少了和平红利。文章最后讨论了加强和平作为全球公共产品的好处的公共政策选择。