Numerous studies have identified a late-onset pattern of offending, yet debate remains over whether this pattern is real or attributable to measurement error. The goal of the present study is to identify whether this late-onset trajectory exists. We used prospective longitudinal data from the Rochester Youth Development Study and group-based trajectory modeling to identify distinct developmental patterns in self-reported incidence of general delinquency from approximately ages 14 to 31. We then examined and compared the means of general, violent, street, and property offending for individuals belonging to late bloomer, chronic, and low-level offending trajectories across three periods: (1) pre-onset (ages 14–17), (2) post-onset (ages 29–31), and (3) for a subset of participants participating in a follow-up study, post-trajectory (ages 32–40). Results confirmed the existence of a distinct late bloomers offending trajectory characterized by low rates of delinquency throughout adolescence and high levels throughout adulthood. Furthermore, late bloomers had similar mean levels of delinquency as low-level offenders and they were considerably lower than chronic offenders in the pre-onset period and similar means of offending as chronic offenders that were considerably higher than low-level offenders in the post-onset and post-trajectory periods. Comparisons of these three groups on adolescent risk and protective factors indicated that late bloomers were more similar to individuals in the low-level trajectory and had fewer risk and more protective factors than individuals following a chronic trajectory. Contrary to prior work which attributes late-onset offending to reliance on official data which fails to detect adolescent offending, late bloomer offending appears to be a genuine phenomenon. These results lend greater support to dynamic theories of crime.

许多研究已经发现了一种迟发性犯罪模式，但对于这种模式是否真实或可归因于测量误差仍存在争议。本研究的目的是确定这种晚发轨迹是否存在。我们使用来自罗切斯特青年发展研究的前瞻性纵向数据和基于群体的轨迹模型来识别大约 14 岁至 31 岁之间自我报告的一般犯罪发生率的不同发展模式。然后，我们检查并比较了一般犯罪、暴力犯罪、街头犯罪的手段。以及属于晚熟、慢性和低水平犯罪轨迹的个人的财产犯罪，跨越三个时期：(1) 发病前（14-17 岁），(2) 发病后（29-31 岁），以及(3) 对于参与跟踪研究的一部分参与者，轨迹后（32-40 岁）。结果证实，存在明显的大器晚成犯罪轨迹，其特点是整个青春期的犯罪率较低，而整个成年期的犯罪率较高。此外，晚熟者的犯罪平均水平与低级犯罪者相似，并且在发病前的时期明显低于慢性犯罪者，而在发病后的犯罪手段与慢性犯罪者相似，但明显高于低级犯罪者。发作期和后轨迹期。这三组青少年风险和保护因素的比较表明，大器晚成者与处于低水平轨迹的个体更相似，并且比遵循慢性轨迹的个体具有更少的风险和更多的保护因素。先前的研究将晚发犯罪归咎于官方数据，而官方数据未能发现青少年犯罪，与此相反，大器晚成犯罪似乎是一个真实的现象。这些结果为动态犯罪理论提供了更大的支持。