The paper explores the link between the civil war (1975–1990) in Lebanon and the first Intifada (1987–1993) in Palestine, and women’s transition to marriage and consanguinity. It marries the literature on demographic behaviour and social ties, and contributes to nascent literature on demographic behaviour in times of war extended to consanguinity. It uses a mixed methods approach using two nationally representative data sets- one from each country, complemented with in-depth interviews (n = 55). Estimation methods are a discrete-time hazard model for entry into marriage and a discrete-time competing risks model for type of marriage. Findings provide empirical support for a war-induced effect on marriage formation, with a conflict-induced educational differential, especially for higher educated women in both settings. In times of war, Lebanese, and Palestinian women and their families resort to marriage as a protective strategy, especially when further educational pursuit is no longer deemed relevant because of both actual and perceived threats to women’s safety. The strategies that women devise however, differ across both countries. Women in Lebanon strategize out-group marriages to diversify resources by establishing new alliances through marriage, while in-group marriages decline. Palestinian women on the other hand, show more heterogeneity, with some women maintaining existing familial bonds through in-group marriages, while others diversify resources through out-group marriages to facilitate new alliances. The differences in women’s strategies in each setting is also indicative of other context contingent conflict-induced mechanisms. These operate through distorted sex-ratios against women in Lebanon, and through the breakage of kin networks through migration/displacement in Palestine.

该论文探讨了黎巴嫩内战（1975-1990）和巴勒斯坦第一次起义（1987-1993）之间的联系，以及妇女向婚姻和血缘关系的过渡。它结合了关于人口行为和社会关系的文献，并为关于战争时期人口行为的新生文献做出了贡献，并扩展到血缘关系。它采用混合方法，使用两个具有全国代表性的数据集——每个国家一个，辅以深入访谈（n = 55)。估计方法是婚姻进入的离散时间风险模型和婚姻类型的离散时间竞争风险模型。研究结果为战争引发的婚姻形成影响提供了实证支持，冲突引发的教育差异，特别是对于两种环境中受过高等教育的女性而言。在战争时期，黎巴嫩和巴勒斯坦妇女及其家人将婚姻作为一种保护策略，尤其是当进一步的教育追求不再被视为对妇女安全的实际和感知威胁时。然而，女性制定的策略在两国不同。黎巴嫩的妇女通过婚姻建立新的联盟来制定外群婚姻以使资源多样化，而群内婚姻则在下降。另一方面，巴勒斯坦妇女，表现出更多的异质性，一些女性通过群体内婚姻维持现有的家庭纽带，而另一些女性则通过群体外婚姻来分散资源以促进新的联盟。每种环境中女性策略的差异也表明了其他因环境而异的冲突诱发机制。这些通过扭曲黎巴嫩妇女的性别比例，以及通过巴勒斯坦的移民/流离失所破坏亲属网络来运作。