Cocaine traffickers, or ‘narco-traffickers’, successfully exploit the heterogeneous landscapes of Central America for transnational smuggling. Narco-traffickers successfully adapt to disruptions from counterdrug interdiction efforts by spatially adjusting smuggling routes to evade detection, and by doing so bring collateral damages, such as deforestation, corruption, and violence, to new areas. This study is novel for its integration of landscape suitability analysis with criminological theory to understand the locations of these spatial adaptations by narco-traffickers as intentional, logical, and predictable choices based on the socio-environmental characteristics of Central America’s landscapes. Multi-level, mixed effects negative binomial regression models predict the suitability of landscapes for cocaine trafficking across 17 departamentos (the unit of analysis) in Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama from 2007 to 2018. Informed by long-term research in the region, independent variables included proximity to roads, country borders, and international ports, indigenous territories, population density, and protected areas. The year of peak interdiction (measured by kg of cocaine seized) in each departamento was used to analyze spatial shifts in landscape suitability before and after maximum counterdrug interdiction pressure. We find that areas with lower population density and closer proximity to international borders became more suitable following peak interdiction—i.e, they are more likely to be sought out by traffickers seeking to avoid further disruptions from counternarcotic efforts. Additionally, indigenous territories were disproportionately exploited as cocaine trafficking routes following significant interdiction activities by law enforcement. While interdiction may reduce the suitability of targeted locations, it can also unintentionally increase the attractiveness of other locations. Our study pushes criminological theory through its application to a unique space/time context, and it advances land system science by considering landscape suitability for logistical rather than productive uses. Policy implications are clear. Since interdiction resources are limited relative to the overall amount of trafficking activity, knowing which landscape features are viewed as suitable by traffickers can in the short-term guide interdiction deployment strategies, and in the longer term build strategies to mitigate associated harms from trafficking where they are most likely.

可卡因贩运者或“毒品贩运者”成功地利用中美洲的异质景观进行跨国走私。贩毒者通过在空间上调整走私路线以逃避侦查，成功地适应了禁毒工作的干扰，并通过这样做给新地区带来了附带损害，例如森林砍伐、腐败和暴力。这项研究的新颖之处在于将景观适宜性分析与犯罪学理论相结合，以根据中美洲景观的社会环境特征，将毒品贩运者的这些空间适应的位置理解为有意的、合乎逻辑的和可预测的选择。多层次、混合效应负二项式回归模型预测 17 个地区可卡因贩运的适宜性2007 年至 2018 年在哥斯达黎加、萨尔瓦多、危地马拉、洪都拉斯、尼加拉瓜和巴拿马的部门（分析单位）。根据该地区的长期研究，自变量包括靠近道路、国家边界和国际港口、土著领地、人口密度和保护区。每个部门的截获高峰年份（以缉获的可卡因公斤数衡量）用于分析最大禁药压力前后景观适宜性的空间变化。我们发现，人口密度较低且更靠近国际边界的地区在禁毒高峰期后变得更适合——即，他们更有可能被贩运者寻找，以避免进一步破坏禁毒工作。此外，在执法部门开展重大拦截活动后，土著领地被不成比例地用作可卡因贩运路线。虽然封锁可能会降低目标位置的适用性，但也会无意中增加其他位置的吸引力。我们的研究通过将犯罪学理论应用于独特的空间/时间背景来推动犯罪学理论，它通过考虑景观是否适合物流而不是生产用途来推进土地系统科学。政策含义很明确。由于拦截资源相对于贩运活动的总量而言是有限的，因此了解贩运者认为适合的景观特征可以在短期指导拦截部署策略，并在长期制定策略以减轻贩运活动造成的相关危害。最有可能。