Historical analyses based on US data indicate that recent cohorts engage in lower binge drinking at age 18 relative to past cohorts, but by the mid- to late-20s the reverse is true: recent cohorts engage in higher binge drinking relative to past cohorts. We pinpoint when – both developmentally and historically – this reversal manifested, examine possible reasons for this reversal, and examine sex convergence in these developmental and historical patterns. As part of the US national Monitoring the Future Study, over 75,000 youths from the high school classes of 1976–2006 were surveyed biennially between ages 18 and 30. We found that the reversal primarily manifested between ages 18 and 24 for men and 18 and 22 for women. We also found that the reversal emerged gradually across the last three decades, suggesting it is the result of a broad and durable historical shift. Our findings indicated that historical variation in social roles and minimum legal drinking age collectively accounted for only a modest amount of the reversal, although marriage was the most influential among the factors examined here. Finally, we found evidence that sex convergence in binge drinking was developmentally limited and far more pronounced at the beginning of the transition to adulthood.

基于美国数据的历史分析表明，与过去的人群相比，最近的人群在 18 岁时酗酒的情况较少，但到了 20 多岁时，情况正好相反：与过去的人群相比，最近的人群的酗酒程度较高。我们从发展和历史角度查明这种逆转何时显现，研究这种逆转的可能原因，并研究这些发展和历史模式中的性别趋同。作为美国国家“监测未来研究”的一部分，每两年对 1976 年至 2006 年高中班级的 75,000 名 18 至 30 岁青少年进行调查。我们发现，这种逆转主要体现在男性 18 至 24 岁之间，以及 18 至 22 岁之间对女性来说。我们还发现，这种逆转在过去三十年中逐渐出现，表明这是广泛而持久的历史转变的结果。我们的研究结果表明，尽管婚姻是本文研究的因素中影响最大的因素，但社会角色和最低法定饮酒年龄的历史变化仅对这种逆转产生了很小的影响。最后，我们发现证据表明，酗酒时的性趋同在发育上受到限制，并且在向成年过渡之初更为明显。