Economic crises like the Great Recession and the COVID pandemic prompt government intervention to stabilize homeowners and housing markets. During the Great Recession, the primary intervention was permanent loan modifications, with mixed evidence of success. The COVID pandemic spurred a more targeted but temporary intervention—mortgage payment relief for unemployed homeowners. Little is known about the long-term effectiveness of temporary mortgage assistance for homeowner outcomes. This paper leverages data on the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Hardest Hit Fund (HHF) program to analyze the longer-term effects of temporary mortgage payment subsidies on mortgage default. Our first research design exploits the fact that some states were not eligible to offer an HHF program and that certain Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) encompass jurisdictions in both HHF and non-HHF states. In a second research design, we model selection into the HHF program directly, exploiting lender variation in program participation as an instrument. Our results indicate that receipt of HHF assistance leads to a 40 percent reduction in the probability of mortgage default and foreclosure through four years post assistance. We estimate heterogeneous effects for different at-risk populations and discuss implications for policy.

中文翻译：

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失业房主的临时抵押贷款援助会减少长期抵押贷款违约吗？受灾最严重的基金项目分析

大衰退和 COVID 大流行等经济危机促使政府干预以稳定房主和住房市场。在大萧条期间，主要干预措施是永久性贷款修改，成功的证据好坏参半。COVID 大流行引发了更有针对性但临时性的干预——为失业的房主减免抵押贷款。关于临时抵押贷款援助对房主结果的长期有效性知之甚少。本文利用美国财政部重灾基金 (HHF) 计划的数据来分析临时抵押贷款支付补贴对抵押贷款违约的长期影响。我们的第一个研究设计利用了以下事实：一些州没有资格提供 HHF 计划，并且某些大都会统计区 (MSA) 包含 HHF 和非 HHF 州的管辖区。在第二个研究设计中，我们将选择直接建模到 HHF 项目中，利用贷款人参与项目的变化作为一种​​工具。我们的结果表明，接受 HHF 援助后，通过四年的援助，抵押贷款违约和丧失抵押品赎回权的可能性降低了 40%。我们估计了不同高危人群的异质效应，并讨论了对政策的影响。我们的结果表明，接受 HHF 援助后，通过四年的援助，抵押贷款违约和丧失抵押品赎回权的可能性降低了 40%。我们估计了不同高危人群的异质效应，并讨论了对政策的影响。我们的结果表明，接受 HHF 援助后，通过四年的援助，抵押贷款违约和丧失抵押品赎回权的可能性降低了 40%。我们估计了不同高危人群的异质效应，并讨论了对政策的影响。