In the traditional criminal justice system, an arrest is followed by multiple decision points determining detention, prosecution, guilt, and sentence. Many jurisdictions across the U.S. are exploring alternative programs and approaches that consider individual needs and assessed risks at each decision point. San Francisco County, California, uses post-filing pretrial diversion programs as alternatives to the traditional criminal justice system for defendants based on factors including social and behavioral needs. In this paper, we estimate the impact of a referral to felony pretrial diversion programs on case outcomes and subsequent criminal justice contact. To address selection bias associated with nonrandom assignment into diversion programs, we exploit the random assignment of felony cases to arraignment judges and use variation among judicial diversion referral rates as an instrument for the diversion referral. We find that a referral to diversion increases the time to disposition in the current case and decreases the probability of a subsequent conviction up to five years following case arraignment. Subgroup analyses find that the benefits of diversion are concentrated among females, those who are under the age of 25, and those facing drug sales charges.

中文翻译：

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重罪转移对旧金山的影响

在传统的刑事司法系统中，逮捕之后是多个决定点，决定拘留、起诉、有罪和判刑。美国的许多司法管辖区正在探索考虑个人需求并在每个决策点评估风险的替代计划和方法。加利福尼亚州旧金山县根据包括社会和行为需求在内的因素，使用提交后审前转移计划作为被告传统刑事司法系统的替代方案。在本文中，我们估计了转介重罪审前分流计划对案件结果和随后的刑事司法联系的影响。为了解决与非随机分配到转移计划相关的选择偏差，我们利用将重罪案件随机分配给提审法官的做法，并使用司法分流转介率之间的差异作为转介转介的工具。我们发现，转介会增加当前案件的处置时间，并在案件提审后五年内降低后续定罪的可能性。亚组分析发现，分流的好处集中在女性、25 岁以下和面临药品销售费用的人群中。