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Liquidity, hedging and the survival of North German dairy farms
European Review of Agricultural Economics ( IF 3.4 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-26 , DOI: 10.1093/erae/jbab009
Stephan Hoehl 1 , Sebastian Hess 2
Affiliation  

Increasingly, European dairy farmers have to manage the raw milk price risk. Price hedging for raw milk and an increasing number of individual fixed-price contracts with processors are now available. However, the choice of hedging a certain share of milk output still leaves individual farmers facing a complex decision. The cash flow model in this study explains the probability of a typical northern European dairy farm surviving illiquidity over an 18-month period under common milk price volatility. The probability of farm survival was modelled in relation to available liquidity buffers and different levels of farm-specific production costs. The model allowed minimum shares of milk output to be determined, for which a fixed price should be hedged if the objective is farm survival at a given probability. Using these modelling results, practitioners are able to determine this share graphically.

中文翻译:

德国北部奶牛场的流动性、对冲和生存

越来越多的欧洲奶农不得不管理原料奶价格风险。原料奶的价格套期保值和越来越多的与加工商签订的单独固定价格合同现已推出。然而,选择对冲一定份额的牛奶产量仍然让个体农民面临复杂的决定。本研究中的现金流模型解释了在普通牛奶价格波动的情况下,典型的北欧奶牛场在 18 个月内因缺乏流动性而幸存的概率。农场生存的概率是根据可用的流动性缓冲和不同水平的农场特定生产成本建模的。该模型允许确定牛奶产量的最低份额,如果目标是在给定概率下农场生存,则应该对固定价格进行套期保值。使用这些建模结果,
更新日期:2021-01-26
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