With the gradual depletion of shallow coal resources, the Yanzhou mine in China will enter the lower coal seam mining phase. However, as mining depth increases, lower coal seam mining in Yanzhou is threatened by water inrush in the Benxi Formation limestone and Ordovician limestone. The existing prediction models for the water burst at the bottom of the coal seam are less accurate than expected owing to various controlling factors and their intrinsic links. By analyzing the hydrogeological exploration data of the Baodian lower seam and combining the results of the water inrush coefficient method and the Yanzhou mine pressure seepage test, an evaluation model of the seepage barrier capacity of the fault was established. The evaluation results show the water of the underlying limestone aquifer in the Baodian mine area mainly threatens the lower coal mining through the fault fracture zone. The security of mining above confined aquifer in the Baodian mine area gradually decreases from southwest to northeast. By comparing the water inrush coefficient method and the evaluation model of fault impermeability, the results show the evaluation model based on seepage barrier conditions is closer to the actual situation when analyzing the water breakout situation at the working face.

随着浅层煤炭资源的逐渐枯竭，我国兖州矿将进入下煤层开采阶段。但随着开采深度的增加，兖州下层煤层开采受到本溪组灰岩和奥陶系灰岩突水的威胁。由于各种控制因素及其内在联系，现有的煤层底部突水预测模型不如预期的准确。通过分析宝店下煤层水文地质勘探资料，结合突水系数法和兖州矿压力渗流试验结果，建立了断层防渗能力评价模型。评价结果表明，宝店矿区下伏石灰岩含水层水主要通过断层断裂带威胁下采煤。宝店矿区承压含水层以上开采安全性由西南向东北逐渐降低。对比突水系数法和断层抗渗评价模型，结果表明，基于防渗屏障条件的评价模型在分析工作面突水情况时更接近实际情况。