Global desalination capacity is set to increase substantially due to growing water demands globally. The impact of desalination plant discharges on local marine environments is a concern but can be partially mitigated by good plant design to rapidly dilute released brine. For some water bodies with restricted connections to the ocean further concerns have been raised as to whether large-scale desalination risks raising salinity levels of the water body as a whole. Here we assess whether the maximum likely desalination growth by 2050 around the Rea Sea and Gulf of Aqaba could raise salinity levels in these restricted water bodies. The cumulative effect of desalination on salinity levels in the Red Sea will be insignificant compared to natural evaporation. The cumulative effect of desalination on salinity levels in the Gulf of Aqaba may be detectable but within the bounds of natural variability. Careful design and management of the desalination plant outfalls will still be required if the ecological impacts of large-scale desalination are to be manageable.

由于全球对水的需求不断增长，全球海水淡化能力将大幅增加。海水淡化厂排放对当地海洋环境的影响是一个问题，但可以通过良好的工厂设计来部分缓解，以快速稀释释放的盐水。对于一些与海洋连接受限的水体，人们进一步担心大规模海水淡化是否有可能提高整个水体的盐度水平。在这里，我们评估了到 2050 年雷亚海和亚喀巴湾周围最大可能的海水淡化增长是否会提高这些受限水体的盐度水平。与自然蒸发相比，海水淡化对红海盐度水平的累积影响将微不足道。海水淡化对亚喀巴湾盐度水平的累积影响可能是可以检测到的，但在自然变化的范围内。如果要控制大规模海水淡化的生态影响，仍然需要仔细设计和管理海水淡化厂的排放口。