We investigate if general economic conditions influence aviation safety across the whole sector. Specifically, the study explores the relationship among aviation accidents and incidents for Part 121 US commercial airlines with fuel prices, stock market volatility, industrial production growth, and treasury bill rates. Our findings suggest that most of the variables under consideration exhibit a strong association with airline safety. Importantly, we examine two plausible channels that may explain these results; managerial decisions and the effect on “human factor”. Analysis of airline financial data, health, and safety violations, along with airline employee satisfaction levels, suggests that it is more likely that the economy influences aviation safety through managerial decisions. This study confirms theoretical predictions about reductions on firms’ quality standards in periods of financial stress and liquidity constraints. The findings of the study have important implications for regulators and other stakeholders.

我们调查总体经济状况是否会影响整个行业的航空安全。具体而言，该研究探讨了美国第 121 部分商业航空公司的航空事故和事故征候与燃油价格、股市波动、工业生产增长和国库券利率之间的关系。我们的研究结果表明，所考虑的大多数变量都与航空公司安全密切相关。重要的是，我们检查了两个可能解释这些结果的似是而非的渠道；管理决策及其对“人为因素”的影响。对航空公司财务数据、健康和安全违规行为以及航空公司员工满意度的分析表明，经济更有可能通过管理决策影响航空安全。本研究证实了有关在财务压力和流动性限制时期降低公司质量标准的理论预测。研究结果对监管机构和其他利益相关者具有重要意义。