Future climate change poses an immediate threat to biodiversity. Species are shifting their geographic distribution in direct response to climate change. Species around the globe are expected to redistribute poleward and/or to high elevations. However, in the Neotropical region, the effects of climate change on species distribution are still unclear. Here, we aimed to infer the current and future geographical distribution of an insectivorous bird species endemic to South American floodplains, the Mato Grosso Antbird (Cercomacra melanaria). We also estimated shifts in the variables of elevation, longitude, latitude, and slope based on forecasting. Current and future distribution in different climate scenarios were predicted using ecological niche modeling (ENM). A non-parametric Kruskall-Wallis test followed by Dunn’s post hoc test were carried out to determine if dependent variables (elevation, slope, latitude, and longitude) differed between climate scenarios. Our findings suggest that future climate change will have negative effects (range contraction) on the distribution of the Mato Grosso Antbird. The decrease in the species’ geographical range will cause it to shift to higher elevations, latitudes, longitudes, and slopes. The species should tend to disperse toward more suitable areas located in highlands close to wetlands, such as the headwaters of the Upper Paraguay River Basin (UPB), and toward the Andean highlands. However, this species inhabits strictly forested environments covering a small home range and its mobility capacity is limited. It is possible that the species will not be able to achieve future geographical redistribution, thus increasing its risk of extinction.

中文翻译：

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未来气候变化对南美泛滥平原特有鸟类地理分布的影响

未来的气候变化对生物多样性构成直接威胁。物种正在改变其地理分布以直接响应气候变化。预计全球的物种将重新分布到极地和/或高海拔地区。然而，在新热带地区，气候变化对物种分布的影响尚不清楚。在这里，我们旨在推断南美泛滥平原特有的食虫鸟类马托格罗索蚁鸟（Cercomacra melanaria）的当前和未来地理分布。我们还根据预测估计了海拔、经度、纬度和坡度变量的变化。使用生态位模型（ENM）预测不同气候情景中的当前和未来分布。进行了非参数 Kruskall-Wallis 检验和 Dunn 事后检验，以确定因变量（海拔、坡度、纬度和经度）在气候情景之间是否不同。我们的研究结果表明，未来的气候变化将对马托格罗索州蚁鸟的分布产生负面影响（范围缩小）。该物种地理范围的减少将导致它转移到更高的海拔、纬度、经度和坡度。该物种应该倾向于分散到位于靠近湿地的高地的更合适的区域，例如上巴拉圭河流域 (UPB) 的源头和安第斯高地。然而，该物种栖息在狭窄的森林环境中，其移动能力有限。