当前位置: X-MOL 学术Front. Struct. Civ. Eng. › 论文详情
Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)
Integrating storm surge modeling with traffic data analysis to evaluate the effectiveness of hurricane evacuation
Frontiers of Structural and Civil Engineering ( IF 3 ) Pub Date : 2021-12-28 , DOI: 10.1007/s11709-021-0765-1
Wenrui Huang 1 , Kai Yin 1, 2 , Mahyar Ghorbanzadeh 1 , Eren Ozguven 1 , Linoj Vijayan 1 , Sudong Xu 2
Affiliation  

An integrated storm surge modeling and traffic analysis were conducted in this study to assess the effectiveness of hurricane evacuations through a case study of Hurricane Irma. The Category 5 hurricane in 2017 caused a record evacuation with an estimated 6.8 million people relocating statewide in Florida. The Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model was applied to simulate storm tides during the hurricane event. Model validations indicated that simulated pressures, winds, and storm surge compared well with observations. Model simulated storm tides and winds were used to estimate the area affected by Hurricane Irma. Results showed that the storm surge and strong wind mainly affected coastal counties in south-west Florida. Only moderate storm tides (maximum about 2.5 m) and maximum wind speed about 115 mph were shown in both model simulations and Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) post-hurricane assessment near the area of hurricane landfall. Storm surges did not rise to the 100-year flood elevation level. The maximum wind was much below the design wind speed of 150–170 mph (Category 5) as defined in Florida Building Code (FBC) for south Florida coastal areas. Compared with the total population of about 2.25 million in the six coastal counties affected by storm surge and Category 1–3 wind, the statewide evacuation of approximately 6.8 million people was found to be an over-evacuation due mainly to the uncertainty of hurricane path, which shifted from south-east to south-west Florida. The uncertainty of hurricane tracks made it difficult to predict the appropriate storm surge inundation zone for evacuation. Traffic data were used to analyze the evacuation traffic patterns. In south-east Florida, evacuation traffic started 4 days before the hurricane’s arrival. However, the hurricane path shifted and eventually landed in south-west Florida, which caused a high level of evacuation traffic in south-west Florida. Over-evacuation caused Evacuation Traffic Index (ETI) to increase to 200% above normal conditions in some sections of highways, which reduced the effectiveness of evacuation. Results from this study show that evacuation efficiency can be improved in the future by more accurate hurricane forecasting, better public awareness of real-time storm surge and wind as well as integrated storm surge and evacuation modeling for quick response to the uncertainty of hurricane forecasting.



中文翻译:

将风暴潮建模与交通数据分析相结合以评估飓风疏散的有效性

本研究中进行了综合风暴潮建模和交通分析,以通过飓风艾玛的案例研究来评估飓风疏散的有效性。2017 年的 5 级飓风造成了创纪录的疏散,估计有 680 万人在全州范围内搬迁到佛罗里达州。应用高级环流 (ADCIRC) 模型来模拟飓风事件期间的风暴潮。模型验证表明,模拟的压力、风和风暴潮与观测结果相比很好。模型模拟风暴潮和风被用来估计受飓风艾玛影响的区域。结果表明,风暴潮和强风主要影响佛罗里达州西南部的沿海县。只有中等风暴潮(最多约 2. 在飓风登陆区域附近的模型模拟和联邦紧急事务管理局 (FEMA) 飓风后评估中都显示了 5 m) 和大约 115 英里/小时的最大风速。风暴潮没有上升到 100 年一遇的洪水高度。最大风速远低于佛罗里达州建筑规范 (FBC) 为佛罗里达州南部沿海地区定义的 150-170 英里/小时(第 5 类)的设计风速。与受风暴潮和1-3级风影响的6个沿海县的总人口约225万相比,全州约680万人的疏散被认为是过度疏散,主要是由于飓风路径的不确定性,它从东南部转移到佛罗里达州西南部。飓风路径的不确定性使得很难预测合适的风暴潮淹没区以进行疏散。交通数据被用来分析疏散交通模式。在佛罗里达州东南部,飓风抵达前 4 天开始疏散交通。然而,飓风路径转移并最终降落在佛罗里达州西南部,导致佛罗里达州西南部的疏散交通量很大。过度疏散导致疏散交通指数(ETI ) 在高速公路的某些路段增加到高于正常情况的 200%,这降低了疏散的有效性。这项研究的结果表明,未来可以通过更准确的飓风预报、更好的公众对实时风暴潮和风的认识以及集成风暴潮和疏散模型来提高疏散效率,以快速响应飓风预报的不确定性。

更新日期:2021-12-29
down
wechat
bug