Recent research suggests that the economy-wide rebound effect is near 100% in several high-income countries. Is it similarly large in middle-income countries? Iran is a middle-income country that is also a large oil producer. We estimate the economy-wide rebound effect for Iran using a structural vector autoregressive model and quarterly data from 1988:3 to 2018:1. We identify the structural shocks by independent component analysis, a statistical identification technique that does not require us to impose restrictions based on economic theory on the model. The results show that in response to an energy efficiency shock energy use falls initially but returns to near its original level over time. The economy-wide rebound effect in Iran is 84% after 6 years and its confidence interval includes 100%. This implies that policies that encourage energy efficiency innovation will have limited long-term impact on energy use.

最近的研究表明，在几个高收入国家，整体经济的反弹效应接近 100%。它在中等收入国家是否同样大？伊朗是一个中等收入国家，也是一个大型石油生产国。我们使用结构向量自回归模型和 1988 年：3 至 2018 年：1 的季度数据估计了伊朗的整体经济反弹效应。我们通过独立成分分析识别结构性冲击，这是一种统计识别技术，不需要我们对模型施加基于经济理论的限制。结果表明，为了应对能源效率冲击，能源使用最初会下降，但随着时间的推移会恢复到接近其原始水平。伊朗 6 年后的整体经济反弹效应为 84%，其置信区间包括 100%。