Peer-to-peer (P2P) energy sharing among neighboring households is a promising solution to mitigating the difficulties of renewable power (such as solar Photovoltaics (PV)) penetration on the power grid. Until now, there is still a lack of study on the impacts of future climate change on the P2P energy trading performances. The future climate change will cause variances in the renewable energy production and further lead to changes in the economic performances of households with various energy uses and affect the decision making in PV ownership and pricing strategies. Being unaware of these impacts could potentially hinder the P2P energy sharing application in practice. To bridge such knowledge gap, this paper conducts a systematic investigation of the climate change impacts on the energy sharing performance in solar PV power shared communities. The future weather data is generated using the Morphine method, and an agent-based modeling method is used for simulating the energy trading behaviors of households. Four comparative scenarios of different PV ownerships and pricing strategies are designed. The detailed energy trading performances (including the PV power self-sufficiency, cost saving, revenues, and compound annual growth rate) for the four comparative scenarios are analyzed under both the present and future climates and compared. The study results of a building community located in Sweden show that the future climate change is more beneficial to large energy use households while less beneficial to small households. High price of energy trading can improve the fairness of the economic performances in the community, especially when some of the households do not have any PV ownership. This study can help understand the future climate impacts on the energy sharing performances of building communities, which can in turn guide decision making in PV ownership and price setting for different households under the future climate change to facilitate real applications.

中文翻译：

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瑞典未来气候变化情景下当地社区点对点能源交易绩效的调查

相邻家庭之间的点对点（P2P）能源共享是缓解可再生能源（例如太阳能光伏（PV））渗透到电网的困难的一个有前途的解决方案。目前，还缺乏关于未来气候变化对P2P能源交易绩效影响的研究。未来的气候变化将导致可再生能源生产的差异，并进一步导致不同能源使用家庭的经济表现发生变化，并影响光伏所有权和定价策略的决策。不了解这些影响可能会阻碍 P2P 能源共享在实践中的应用。为了弥补这种知识差距，本文系统地调查了气候变化对太阳能光伏发电共享社区能源共享绩效的影响。使用吗啡方法生成未来天气数据，并使用基于代理的建模方法来模拟家庭的能源交易行为。设计了不同光伏所有权和定价策略的四种比较场景。在当前和未来的气候下，对四种比较情景的详细能源交易绩效（包括光伏发电自给自足、成本节约、收入和复合年增长率）进行了分析和比较。位于瑞典的一个建筑社区的研究结果表明，未来的气候变化对用能大户更有利，而对小户则不太有利。高能源交易价格可以提高社区经济表现的公平性，特别是当一些家庭没有任何光伏所有权时。本研究有助于了解未来气候对建筑社区能源共享绩效的影响，进而指导未来气候变化下不同家庭的光伏拥有量和价格制定决策，以利于实际应用。