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Better lucky than good: The Simon-Ehrlich bet through the lens of financial economics
Ecological Economics ( IF 7 ) Pub Date : 2021-12-24 , DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107322
Ross B. Emmett 1 , Jesse Grabowski 2
Affiliation  

In 1980, Julian Simon and Paul Ehrlich bet on the future of natural resource prices as a vehicle for their public debate about mankind's future. Simon ultimately won, and his victory has been used as evidence that innovation can offset material scarcity induced by human economic activity. But does the outcome of the bet truly suggest this? We recast the bet as a short-sale by Simon of Ehrlich's portfolio of assets, allowing us to carefully analyze the choices made in the bet, including the resources chosen and their amounts and the period of the bet, conditioned on the information available to each man in 1980. We also investigate the role of randomness in the outcome of the bet. We find that, with careful portfolio construction, Ehrlich should win this bet more often than not, validating the age-old adage that it's better to be lucky than good.



中文翻译:

好运胜于好事:Simon-Ehrlich 通过金融经济学的视角下赌注

1980 年,Julian Simon 和 Paul Ehrlich 押注自然资源价格的未来,以此作为他们就人类未来进行公开辩论的工具。西蒙最终获胜,他的胜利被用作创新可以抵消人类经济活动引起的物质稀缺的证据。但赌注的结果真的表明了这一点吗?我们将 Ehrlich 资产组合的 Simon 的赌注改写为卖空,使我们能够仔细分析赌注中所做的选择,包括选择的资源及其金额以及赌注的期限,条件是每个人都可以获得的信息1980 年的男人。我们还调查了随机性在下注结果中的作用。我们发现,通过仔细的投资组合构建,Ehrlich 应该经常赢得这场赌注,这证实了古老的格言“它”

更新日期:2021-12-25
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