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The external debt-inflation nexus in Egypt
Journal of Public Affairs Pub Date : 2021-12-14 , DOI: 10.1002/pa.2802 Heba E. Helmy 1
Journal of Public Affairs Pub Date : 2021-12-14 , DOI: 10.1002/pa.2802 Heba E. Helmy 1
Affiliation
Egypt has a long history with external financing dating back to the 19th century. Nevertheless, Egypt's external debt has been mounting remarkably in the past few years. This paper examines the impact of Egypt's external debt on its price level, a topic ignored by researchers. Nonetheless, as inflation is a hydra-headed problem, this paper develops several models which incorporate fiscal and monetary policies besides other inflation-inducing internal and external factors using monthly data extending from 2000M1 to 2020 M1. By employing ARDL cointegration analyses on monthly time series variables and using Egypt's wholesale price index to account for inflation, the paper concludes that external debt raises prices both in the short and long runs. Moreover, money supply and interest rate were also found to increase prices in the long run long despite decreasing them in the short run. Finally, upsurges in the international prices of primary products stimulate domestic prices both in the short and long terms, while depreciation in the local currency aggravates inflation in the short and long terms as well. As external debt raises inflation and affects many other inflation-inducing factors indirectly, the paper concludes that reducing Egypt's external debt may help in curbing Egypt's inflation.
中文翻译:
埃及的外债-通胀关系
埃及的外部融资历史悠久,可追溯到 19 世纪。尽管如此,埃及的外债在过去几年里一直在显着增加。本文考察了埃及外债对其价格水平的影响,这是一个被研究人员忽视的话题。尽管如此,由于通货膨胀是一个多头问题,本文使用从 2000M1 到 2020M1 的月度数据开发了几个模型,这些模型将财政和货币政策与其他引发通货膨胀的内部和外部因素结合起来。通过对每月时间序列变量采用 ARDL 协整分析,并使用埃及的批发价格指数来解释通货膨胀,本文得出结论,外债在短期和长期都会提高价格。而且,货币供应量和利率也被发现在长期内会增加价格,尽管在短期内会降低价格。最后,初级产品的国际价格上涨在短期和长期刺激国内价格,而本币贬值也在短期和长期加剧通胀。由于外债推高通货膨胀并间接影响许多其他通货膨胀诱发因素,本文得出结论,减少埃及的外债可能有助于抑制埃及的通货膨胀。
更新日期:2021-12-14
中文翻译:
埃及的外债-通胀关系
埃及的外部融资历史悠久,可追溯到 19 世纪。尽管如此,埃及的外债在过去几年里一直在显着增加。本文考察了埃及外债对其价格水平的影响,这是一个被研究人员忽视的话题。尽管如此,由于通货膨胀是一个多头问题,本文使用从 2000M1 到 2020M1 的月度数据开发了几个模型,这些模型将财政和货币政策与其他引发通货膨胀的内部和外部因素结合起来。通过对每月时间序列变量采用 ARDL 协整分析,并使用埃及的批发价格指数来解释通货膨胀,本文得出结论,外债在短期和长期都会提高价格。而且,货币供应量和利率也被发现在长期内会增加价格,尽管在短期内会降低价格。最后,初级产品的国际价格上涨在短期和长期刺激国内价格,而本币贬值也在短期和长期加剧通胀。由于外债推高通货膨胀并间接影响许多其他通货膨胀诱发因素,本文得出结论,减少埃及的外债可能有助于抑制埃及的通货膨胀。