Agricultural Systems ( IF 6.6 ) Pub Date : 2021-12-15 , DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103350 Micah Scudder 1 , Nathan Wampe 2 , Zephaniah Waviki 2 , Grahame Applegate 1 , John Herbohn 1
CONTEXT
Smallholder cocoa agroforestry systems provide most of the cocoa produced world-wide and can improve the livelihoods of rural families in the tropics. However, many smallholder cocoa producers experience low cocoa yields due to generally poor management practices, pests, disease, and low soil fertility. In Papua New Guinea, pest and disease management systems have been developed to provide improved yields and revenues, but there has been limited uptake.
OBJECTIVE
We hypothesized that the low uptake of these systems may be due to the improved yields not being sufficient to justify the required increase in labour and capital inputs. Our objective was to assess if the integrated pest and disease management systems were financially viable.
METHODS
Our methods involved developing discounted cash flow models that incorporated Monte Carlo risk analysis software. We populated the models with labour inputs, costs, and revenue data collected in country, and from scientific literature. In addition to net present value, we evaluated the production systems with additional criteria we deemed appropriate for assessing the required labour inputs and capital outlays; return on labour; mean labour hours/day; mean annual capital outlays, mean hourly income, and mean annual income.
RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS
Our results show that under the current cocoa prices being received, all the production systems had a negative net present value, and a mean hourly income that was below the Papua New Guinea minimum wage and less than 1 USD/h. Furthermore, the progressive addition of labour inputs and capital outlays of the pest and disease management systems resulted in mean hourly incomes that are less than currently being received. These decreased hourly earnings may explain the low adoption of these technologies.
SIGNIFICANCE
Financial analyses of new smallholder agroforestry technologies should be used to evaluate the viability and likelihood of smallholder technology adoption. Previous research on cocoa pest and disease management systems failed to account for costs related to labour and capital inputs. Even if farm family labour does not incur a direct cash outflow, it does represent an opportunity cost to farmers. Including additional criteria that measure financial returns to farmers relative to labour and capital requirements should be a part these assessments. These additional criteria can aid in evaluating all the economic thresholds that may impact if and how smallholders will incorporate new agroforestry technologies, which can help improve the success for agriculture-based development projects throughout the global tropics.
中文翻译:
小农可可农林业系统;增加的产量是否值得投入劳动力和资本?
语境
小农可可农林业系统提供了世界范围内生产的大部分可可,可以改善热带地区农村家庭的生计。然而,由于普遍管理不善、病虫害和土壤肥力低,许多小农可可生产者的可可产量较低。在巴布亚新几内亚,已经开发了病虫害管理系统以提高产量和收入,但应用有限。
客观的
我们假设这些系统的低吸收率可能是由于提高的产量不足以证明所需的劳动力和资本投入的增加是合理的。我们的目标是评估综合病虫害管理系统在财务上是否可行。
方法
我们的方法涉及开发包含蒙特卡罗风险分析软件的贴现现金流模型。我们用在国家和科学文献中收集的劳动力投入、成本和收入数据填充模型。除了净现值外,我们还使用我们认为适合评估所需劳动力投入和资本支出的其他标准来评估生产系统;劳动报酬;平均工时/天;平均年资本支出、平均小时收入和平均年收入。
结果和结论
我们的结果表明,在当前收到的可可价格下,所有生产系统的净现值为负,平均小时收入低于巴布亚新几内亚最低工资,低于 1 美元/小时。此外,病虫害管理系统的劳动力投入和资本支出的逐步增加导致平均每小时收入低于目前的收入。这些减少的小时收入可能解释了这些技术的低采用率。
意义
应使用新的小农农林业技术的财务分析来评估小农技术采用的可行性和可能性。先前对可可病虫害管理系统的研究未能考虑与劳动力和资本投入相关的成本。即使农场家庭劳动力不会产生直接的现金流出,但它确实代表了农民的机会成本。包括衡量农民相对于劳动力和资本要求的财务回报的其他标准应该是这些评估的一部分。这些附加标准有助于评估所有可能影响小农是否以及如何采用新农林业技术的经济门槛,这有助于提高全球热带地区以农业为基础的发展项目的成功。