Impacts of climate change on ocean productivity sustaining world fisheries are predominantly negative but vary greatly among regions. We assessed how 39 fisheries resources—ranging from data-poor to data-rich stocks—in the North East Atlantic are most likely affected under the intermediate climate emission scenario RCP4.5 towards 2050. This region is one of the most productive waters in the world but subjected to pronounced climate change, especially in the northernmost part. In this climate impact assessment, we applied a hybrid solution combining expert opinions (scorings)—supported by an extensive literature review—with mechanistic approaches, considering stocks in three different large marine ecosystems, the North, Norwegian and Barents Seas. This approach enabled calculation of the directional effect as a function of climate exposure and sensitivity attributes (life-history schedules), focusing on local stocks (conspecifics) across latitudes rather than the species in general. The resulting synopsis (50–82°N) contributes substantially to global assessments of major fisheries (FAO, The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture, 2020), complementing related studies off northeast United States (35–45°N) (Hare et al., PLoS One, 2016, 11, e0146756) and Portugal (37–42°N) (Bueno-Pardo et al., Scientific Reports, 2021, 11, 2958). Contrary to prevailing fisheries forecasts elsewhere, we found that most assessed stocks respond positively. However, the underlying, extensive environmental clines implied that North East Atlantic stocks will develop entirely different depending upon the encountered stressors: cold-temperate stocks at the southern and Arctic stocks at the northern fringes appeared severely negatively impacted, whereas warm-temperate stocks expanding from south were found to do well along with cold-temperate stocks currently inhabiting below-optimal temperatures in the northern subregion.

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近期气候变化对东北大西洋种群生产力代理的高度混合影响

气候变化对维持世界渔业的海洋生产力的影响主要是负面的，但区域之间差异很大。我们评估了东北大西洋的 39 种渔业资源——从数据贫乏到数据丰富的种群——在到 2050 年的中间气候排放情景 RCP4.5 下最有可能受到影响。该地区是全球生产力最高的水域之一。世界，但受到明显的气候变化影响，尤其是在最北部。在本次气候影响评估中，我们应用了一种混合解决方案，将专家意见（评分）（由广泛的文献综述支持）与机械方法相结合，考虑了三个不同的大型海洋生态系统（北海、挪威海和巴伦支海）的种群。这种方法能够计算方向效应作为气候暴露和敏感性属性（生活史时间表）的函数，重点关注跨纬度的当地种群（同种）而不是一般的物种。由此产生的概要（50-82°N）对主要渔业的全球评估（粮农组织，世界渔业和水产养殖状况，2020）做出了重大贡献，补充了美国东北部（35-45°N）的相关研究（Hare等人., PLoS One, 2016, 11, e0146756) 和葡萄牙 (37–42°N) (Bueno-Pardo et al., Scientific Reports, 2021, 11, 2958)。与其他地方普遍的渔业预测相反，我们发现大多数评估种群的反应是积极的。然而，底层，