We estimate with UK data a Phillips curve model with backward-looking and forward-looking methods of determining inflation expectations and with agents switching between these based on their recent performance. We find that, while on average backward-looking and forward-looking methods have about equal weight, there are considerable movements in the weight given to each method. We show this model has better in-sample fit than other Phillips curve models and this is robust to the methodology chosen. The model out-of-sample forecasts on certain dates do better than other Phillips curve models and the Atkeson and Ohanian model.

中文翻译：

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英国通胀预期转换的计量经济学分析*

我们用英国数据估计了一个菲利普斯曲线模型，该模型具有确定通胀预期的向后和前瞻性方法，并且代理人根据他们最近的表现在这两种方法之间切换。我们发现，虽然平均而言，向后看和前瞻性方法的权重大致相同，但每种方法的权重都有相当大的变化。我们展示了该模型比其他菲利普斯曲线模型具有更好的样本内拟合，并且这对所选择的方法具有鲁棒性。该模型在某些日期的样本外预测比其他菲利普斯曲线模型以及 Atkeson 和 Ohanian 模型做得更好。