Epidemic Models of the Onset of Social Activities (EMOSA) describe behaviors that spread through social networks. Two social influence methods are represented, social contagion (one-to-one spread) and general diffusion (spread through cultural channels). Past models explain problem behaviors—smoking, drinking, sexuality, and delinquency. We provide review, and a tutorial (including examples). Following, we present new EMOSA models explaining changes in adolescent and young adult religious participation. We fit the model to 10 years of data from the 1997 U.S. National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. Innovations include a three-stage bi-directional model, Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation, graphical innovations, and empirical validation. General diffusion dominated rapid reduction in church attendance during adolescence; both diffusion and social contagion explained church attendance stability in early adulthood.

中文翻译：

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青少年宗教转变的社会传染和普遍传播模型：教程和 EMOSA 应用

社交活动开始的流行病模型 (EMOSA) 描述了通过社交网络传播的行为。代表了两种社会影响方法，社会传染（一对一传播）和一般扩散（通过文化渠道传播）。过去的模型解释了问题行为——吸烟、饮酒、性行为和犯罪。我们提供评论和教程（包括示例）。接下来，我们提出了新的 EMOSA 模型来解释青少年和年轻成人宗教参与的变化。我们将模型与 1997 年美国全国青年纵向调查的 10 年数据相匹配。创新包括三阶段双向模型、贝叶斯马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗 (MCMC) 估计、图形创新和经验验证。普遍扩散主导了青春期教堂出席率的快速下降；