Millions of lakes inversely stratify during winter. Seemingly subtle variations in the duration of winter stratification can have major ecological effects by, for example, altering the vertical distribution of oxygen and nutrients in lakes. Yet, the influence of climate change on winter stratification has been largely unexplored. To fill this knowledge gap, here we used a lake-climate model ensemble to investigate changes in winter stratification from 1901 to 2099 across 12,242 representative lakes situated throughout the Northern Hemisphere. By the end of the 21^st century, winter stratification duration is projected to shorten by an average of 18.5–53.9 d under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6–8.5. Projected changes are faster in warmer geographical regions, in which 35–69% of lakes will no longer inversely stratify by 2070–2099 under RCPs 2.6–8.5. This shortening and loss of winter stratification will likely have numerous implications for lakes, including the misalignment of lifecycle events causing shifts in biodiversity.

中文翻译：

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历史与未来气候变化下的冬季逆湖分层

数以百万计的湖泊在冬季反向分层。冬季分层持续时间看似细微的变化可能会产生重大的生态影响，例如，通过改变湖泊中氧气和营养物质的垂直分布。然而，气候变化对冬季分层的影响在很大程度上尚未得到探索。为了填补这一知识空白，我们在这里使用了一个湖泊气候模型集合来研究 1901 年至 2099 年整个北半球 12,242 个代表性湖泊的冬季分层变化。21^日结束时世纪，在代表性浓度路径（RCP）2.6-8.5下，冬季分层持续时间预计平均缩短18.5-53.9天。在较温暖的地理区域，预计变化更快，在 RCP 2.6-8.5 下，到 2070-2099 年，35-69% 的湖泊将不再反向分层。这种冬季分层的缩短和丧失可能会对湖泊产生许多影响，包括导致生物多样性变化的生命周期事件的错位。