ABSTRACT

Facing with the enormous economic loss resulting from the unexpected outburst of the COVID-19 pandemic, central banks around the world began to show a great activeness and implement numerous monetary policies to help mitigate the negative shocks and recover the economy. This paper aims at investigating the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the macroeconomy and whether central bank activeness have helped mitigate the negative shock of the COVID-19. Using the panel fixed effects model and monthly data of 38 countries from January 2020 to June 2021, this paper finds that the COVID-19 pandemic has increased inflation and unemployment apparently. More importantly, central bank activeness has a positive effect on reducing the growing pressure from the COVID-19 on inflation, while it cannot mitigate the shock of the COVID-19 on unemployment rate. Specially, government others measure, including containment and health, and stringency policies, have little effect in mitigating the negative impact of the pandemic on inflation and unemployment. Our findings suggest that the central bank activeness have heterogeneous effects on different macroeconomic indicators, and cannot mitigate the hurts of the COVID-19 pandemic for all macro indicators during the pandemic.

摘要

面对因COVID-19大流行意外爆发而造成的巨大经济损失，世界各国央行开始表现出极大的积极性，并实施了众多货币政策，以帮助减轻负面冲击并恢复经济。本文旨在调查 COVID-19 大流行对宏观经济的影响，以及央行的积极性是否有助于减轻 COVID-19 的负面冲击。使用面板固定效应模型和 38 个国家 2020 年 1 月至 2021 年 6 月的月度数据，本文发现 COVID-19 大流行明显增加了通货膨胀和失业率。更重要的是，央行的积极性对减轻 COVID-19 对通胀日益增长的压力具有积极作用，但不能减轻 COVID-19 对失业率的冲击。特别是，政府的其他措施，包括遏制和健康以及严格的政策，对于减轻大流行对通货膨胀和失业的负面影响几乎没有效果。我们的研究结果表明，中央银行的积极性对不同的宏观经济指标具有不同的影响，并且无法减轻 COVID-19 大流行对大流行期间所有宏观指标的伤害。