Is there a trade-off between spending on the green economy and an economy's strength? This paper addresses this question by estimating output multipliers for spending in clean energy and biodiversity conservation, and by comparing these to multipliers of spending on non-ecofriendly energy and land use activities. Using a new international dataset, we arrive at two key results. First, we find that every dollar spent on key carbon-neutral or carbon-sink activities can generate more than a dollar's worth of economic activity, whereas non-green spending returns less than a dollar. Second, for categories of spending where formal comparisons are possible, like renewable versus fossil fuel energy, we find that multipliers on green spending are about twice as large as their non-green counterparts. The point estimates of the multipliers are 1.1–1.7 for renewable energy investment and 0.4–0.7 for fossil fuel energy investment, depending on horizon and specification. These findings survive several robustness checks and lend support to bottom-up analyses that find that stabilizing climate and reversing biodiversity loss go hand in hand with economic prosperity.

绿色经济支出与经济实力之间是否存在权衡？本文通过估算清洁能源和生物多样性保护支出的产出乘数，并将这些乘数与非环保能源和土地利用活动的支出乘数进行比较来解决这个问题。使用新的国际数据集，我们得出了两个关键结果。首先，我们发现在关键的碳中和或碳汇活动上花费的每一美元都可以产生超过 1 美元的经济活动价值，而非绿色支出的回报不到 1 美元。其次，对于可以进行正式比较的支出类别，例如可再生能源与化石燃料能源，我们发现绿色支出的乘数大约是非绿色支出的两倍。乘数的点估计值为 1.1–1。7 为可再生能源投资，0.4-0.7 为化石燃料能源投资，取决于范围和规格。这些发现经受住了几次稳健性检查，并为自下而上的分析提供了支持，这些分析发现稳定气候和扭转生物多样性丧失与经济繁荣齐头并进。