Targeted adaptation to near-term climate change requires accurate, reliable, and actionable climate information for the next few decades. Climate projections simulate the response to radiative forcing, but are subject to substantial uncertainties due to internal variability. Decadal climate predictions aim to reduce this uncertainty by initializing the simulations using observations, but are typically limited to the next 10 years. Here, we use decadal predictions to constrain climate projections beyond the next decade and demonstrate that accounting for climate variability improves regional projections of 20-year average temperatures. Applying this constraint to climate projections of the near future until 2035, summer temperatures over land regions in Asia and Africa tend to show stronger changes within the warming range simulated by the larger, unconstrained, ensemble—consistent with a warm phase in North Atlantic variability. This improved regional climate information can enable tailored adaptation to climate changes in the coming decades.

中文翻译：

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限制年代际变化产生对近期气候变化的巧妙预测

有针对性地适应近期气候变化需要未来几十年准确、可靠和可操作的气候信息。气候预测模拟对辐射强迫的响应，但由于内部变化而存在很大的不确定性。年代际气候预测旨在通过使用观测初始化模拟来减少这种不确定性，但通常仅限于未来 10 年。在这里，我们使用年代际预测来限制未来十年之后的气候预测，并证明对气候变率的考虑可以改善 20 年平均温度的区域预测。将此约束应用于近期至 2035 年的气候预测，亚洲和非洲陆地区域的夏季气温往往在较大的、不受约束的整体——与北大西洋变率的温暖阶段一致。这种改进的区域气候信息可以在未来几十年中实现对气候变化的定制适应。