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A review of methods used to test periodicity of natural processes with a special focus on harmonic periodicities found in global UPb detrital zircon age distributions
Earth-Science Reviews ( IF 12.1 ) Pub Date : 2021-12-04 , DOI: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2021.103885
Stephen J. Puetz 1 , Kent C. Condie 2
Affiliation  

The multitude of periodicities reported from detrital zircon and related geochemical time-series leads to questions about which cycles should be considered valid, which are byproducts of random noise, and the degree of uncertainty associated with the detected periodicities. To enhance understanding of detrital zircon periodicities, we review existing estimates by assessing both methodological reliability and reproducibility of results. Methods commonly employed include scalograms from wavelet analysis, periodograms from spectral analysis, and correlograms from cross-correlation analysis. This study analyzes possible zircon periodicities ranging from less than 1 million to 1 billion years. We systematically evaluate the capabilities of each approach, and then refine estimates in terms of their reproducibility using seven completely independent to partially independent Usingle bondPb detrital zircon databases. Periodicities that are consistently found at high confidence levels are considered statistically significant, whereas those that cannot be replicated are considered as spurious. The comparative studies of detrital zircon ages reveal a dominant set of eight period-tripling cycles of ~0.373, 1.12, 3.35, 10.1, 30.2, 90.5, 272, and 815 myr (rounded to three digits). Additionally, a multitude of subordinate cycles are harmonically linked to the main period-tripling sequence. The detected periodicities often correspond to cycles found in large igneous province occurrence, seafloor spreading rates, million-year climatic cycles, mass extinctions, and other natural variation seemingly unrelated to geological processes. The commonality suggests a persistent episodic link between zircon production and other geological and non-geological processes throughout Earth's entire history. As a final step, we review a variety of hypotheses being explored to explain primary, secondary, and tertiary causes of cycles, and then propose tests that should soon be possible to either validate or falsify these diverse ideas.



中文翻译:

用于测试自然过程周期性的方法综述,特别关注在全球 UPb 碎屑锆石年龄分布中发现的谐波周期性

碎屑锆石和相关地球化学时间序列报告的大量周期性导致了以下问题:哪些循环应该被认为是有效的,哪些是随机噪声的副产品,以及与检测到的周期性相关的不确定性程度。为了加深对碎屑锆石周期性的理解,我们通过评估方法的可靠性和结果的再现性来审查现有的估计。常用的方法包括来自小波分析的标度图、来自频谱分析的周期图和来自互相关分析的相关图。这项研究分析了可能的锆石周期,从不到 100 万年到 10 亿年不等。我们系统地评估每种方法的能力,单键铅碎屑锆石数据库。始终在高置信水平下发现的周期性被认为具有统计显着性,而那些无法复制的则被认为是虚假的。碎屑锆石年龄的比较研究揭示了一组占主导地位的 8 个周期三倍周期,约为 0.373、1.12、3.35、10.1、30.2、90.5、272 和 815 毫微米(四舍五入为三位数)。此外,大量从属周期与主周期三倍序列和谐地联系在一起。检测到的周期性通常对应于在大型火成岩省发生、海底扩张率、百万年气候循环、大规模灭绝和其他看似与地质过程无关的自然变化中发现的循环。这种共性表明,在整个地球历史上,锆石生产与其他地质和非地质过程之间存在持续的情节联系。作为最后一步,我们回顾了正在探索的各种假设,以解释周期的主要、次要和三次原因,然后提出应该很快可以验证或证伪这些不同想法的测试。

更新日期:2021-12-10
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