Although there has been a fast rise in the share of Americans reporting no religion, it is unclear whether this trend has affected different parts of the country equally. Against this backdrop, we apply dynamic multilevel regression and poststratification (Dynamic MRP) to General Social Survey data over the period 1973 to 2018 to estimate state-level religious trends. We validate our estimates against external benchmarks, finding that they perform well in terms of predictive accuracy. Substantively, we find steeper increases in the share of religious nones in states that had more nones to begin with. Moreover, whereas state-level increases in the share of religious nones are strongly linked to declines in occasional church attendance and moderate religious identification, the associations with trends in regular attendance and strong identification are much weaker. States have thus not only diverged in their share of religious nones but also experienced different degrees of religious polarization.

中文翻译：

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1973 年至 2018 年美国无宗教信仰的兴起：州级宗教信仰和参与一般社会调查的趋势

尽管报告没有宗教信仰的美国人的比例迅速上升，但尚不清楚这种趋势是否同样影响了该国的不同地区。在此背景下，我们将动态多级回归和后分层 (Dynamic MRP) 应用于 1973 年至 2018 年期间的一般社会调查数据，以估计州级宗教趋势。我们根据外部基准验证我们的估计，发现它们在预测准确性方面表现良好。实质上，我们发现在开始时有更多宗教信仰者的州中，宗教信仰者的比例急剧增加。此外，虽然州一级无宗教信仰者比例的增加与偶尔去教堂的人数下降和适度的宗教认同密切相关，与经常出席和强烈认同趋势的联系要弱得多。因此，各国不仅在宗教信仰方面存在分歧，而且还经历了不同程度的宗教两极分化。